<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<rss version="2.0"
	xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"
	xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/"
	xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
	xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom"
	xmlns:sy="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/syndication/"
	xmlns:slash="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/slash/"
	>

<channel>
	<title>Financial Markets &#187; Physics</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.appapillai.com/blog/category/physics/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.appapillai.com/blog</link>
	<description>Random musings on global financial markets, technology, physics and geopolitics</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Sat, 26 Nov 2011 22:58:29 +0000</lastBuildDate>
	<language>en</language>
	<sy:updatePeriod>hourly</sy:updatePeriod>
	<sy:updateFrequency>1</sy:updateFrequency>
	<generator>http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1</generator>
		<item>
		<title>You and Your Research</title>
		<link>http://www.appapillai.com/blog/2011/08/27/you-and-your-research/</link>
		<comments>http://www.appapillai.com/blog/2011/08/27/you-and-your-research/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 27 Aug 2011 13:27:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>mano</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Physics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bell Labs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hamming]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[research]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.appapillai.com/blog/?p=1098</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Fascinating thoughts . .  and lots of names I recognise &#160; &#160; Richard Hamming &#160; &#8220;You and Your Research&#8221; &#160; Transcription of the Bell Communications Research Colloquium Seminar 7 March 1986 &#160; J. F. Kaiser Bell Communications Research 445 South Street Morristown, NJ 07962-1910 jfk@bellcore.com At a seminar in the Bell Communications Research Colloquia Series, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Fascinating thoughts . .  and lots of names I recognise</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h1 align="center">Richard Hamming</h1>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h1 align="center">&#8220;You and Your Research&#8221;</h1>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p align="center">Transcription of the<br />
Bell Communications Research Colloquium Seminar<br />
7 March 1986</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p align="center">J. F. Kaiser<br />
Bell Communications Research<br />
445 South Street<br />
Morristown, NJ 07962-1910<br />
<a href="mailto:jfk@bellcore.com">jfk@bellcore.com</a></p>
<p>At a seminar in the Bell Communications Research Colloquia Series, Dr. Richard W. Hamming, a Professor at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California and a retired Bell Labs scientist, gave a very interesting and stimulating talk, `You and Your Research&#8217; to an overflow audience of some 200 Bellcore staff members and visitors at the Morris Research and Engineering Center on March 7, 1986. This talk centered on Hamming&#8217;s observations and research on the question &#8220;Why do so few scientists make significant contributions and so many are forgotten in the long run?&#8221; From his more than forty years of experience, thirty of which were at Bell Laboratories, he has made a number of direct observations, asked very pointed questions of scientists about what, how, and why they did things, studied the lives of great scientists and great contributions, and has done introspection and studied theories of creativity. The talk is about what he has learned in terms of the properties of the individual scientists, their abilities, traits, working habits, attitudes, and philosophy.</p>
<p>In order to make the information in the talk more widely available, the tape recording that was made of that talk was carefully transcribed. This transcription includes the discussions which followed in the question and answer period. As with any talk, the transcribed version suffers from translation as all the inflections of voice and the gestures of the speaker are lost; one must listen to the tape recording to recapture that part of the presentation. While the recording of Richard Hamming&#8217;s talk was completely intelligible, that of some of the questioner&#8217;s remarks were not. Where the tape recording was not intelligible I have added in parentheses my impression of the questioner&#8217;s remarks. Where there was a question and I could identify the questioner, I have checked with each to ensure the accuracy of my interpretation of their remarks.</p>
<p><strong>INTRODUCTION OF DR. RICHARD W. HAMMING</strong></p>
<p>As a speaker in the Bell Communications Research Colloquium Series, Dr. Richard W. Hamming of the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California, was introduced by Alan G. Chynoweth, Vice President, Applied Research, Bell Communications Research.</p>
<p><em>Alan G. Chynoweth:</em> Greetings colleagues, and also to many of our former colleagues from Bell Labs who, I understand, are here to be with us today on what I regard as a particularly felicitous occasion. It gives me very great pleasure indeed to introduce to you my old friend and colleague from many many years back, Richard Hamming, or Dick Hamming as he has always been know to all of us.</p>
<p>Dick is one of the all time greats in the mathematics and computer science arenas, as I&#8217;m sure the audience here does not need reminding. He received his early education at the Universities of Chicago and Nebraska, and got his Ph.D. at Illinois; he then joined the Los Alamos project during the war. Afterwards, in 1946, he joined Bell Labs. And that is, of course, where I met Dick &#8211; when I joined Bell Labs in their physics research organization. In those days, we were in the habit of lunching together as a physics group, and for some reason this strange fellow from mathematics was always pleased to join us. We were always happy to have him with us because he brought so many unorthodox ideas and views. Those lunches were stimulating, I can assure you.</p>
<p>While our professional paths have not been very close over the years, nevertheless I&#8217;ve always recognized Dick in the halls of Bell Labs and have always had tremendous admiration for what he was doing. I think the record speaks for itself. It is too long to go through all the details, but let me point out, for example, that he has written seven books and of those seven books which tell of various areas of mathematics and computers and coding and information theory, three are already well into their second edition. That is testimony indeed to the prolific output and the stature of Dick Hamming.</p>
<p>I think I last met him &#8211; it must have been about ten years ago &#8211; at a rather curious little conference in Dublin, Ireland where we were both speakers. As always, he was tremendously entertaining. Just one more example of the provocative thoughts that he comes up with: I remember him saying, &#8220;There are wavelengths that people cannot see, there are sounds that people cannot hear, and maybe computers have thoughts that people cannot think.&#8221; Well, with Dick Hamming around, we don&#8217;t need a computer. I think that we are in for an extremely entertaining talk.</p>
<p><strong>THE TALK: &#8220;You and Your Research&#8221; by Dr. Richard W. Hamming</strong></p>
<p>It&#8217;s a pleasure to be here. I doubt if I can live up to the Introduction. The title of my talk is, &#8220;You and Your Research.&#8221; It is not about managing research, it is about how you individually do your research. I could give a talk on the other subject &#8211; but it&#8217;s not, it&#8217;s about you. I&#8217;m not talking about ordinary run-of-the-mill research; I&#8217;m talking about great research. And for the sake of describing great research I&#8217;ll occasionally say Nobel-Prize type of work. It doesn&#8217;t have to gain the Nobel Prize, but I mean those kinds of things which we perceive are significant things. Relativity, if you want, Shannon&#8217;s information theory, any number of outstanding theories &#8211; that&#8217;s the kind of thing I&#8217;m talking about.</p>
<p>Now, how did I come to do this study? At Los Alamos I was brought in to run the computing machines which other people had got going, so those scientists and physicists could get back to business. I saw I was a stooge. I saw that although physically I was the same, they were different. And to put the thing bluntly, I was envious. I wanted to know why they were so different from me. I saw Feynman up close. I saw Fermi and Teller. I saw Oppenheimer. I saw Hans Bethe: he was my boss. I saw quite a few very capable people. I became very interested in the difference between those who do and those who might have done.</p>
<p>When I came to Bell Labs, I came into a very productive department. Bode was the department head at the time; Shannon was there, and there were other people. I continued examining the questions, &#8220;Why?&#8221; and &#8220;What is the difference?&#8221; I continued subsequently by reading biographies, autobiographies, asking people questions such as: &#8220;How did you come to do this?&#8221; I tried to find out what are the differences. And that&#8217;s what this talk is about.</p>
<p>Now, why is this talk important? I think it is important because, as far as I know, each of you has one life to live. Even if you believe in reincarnation it doesn&#8217;t do you any good from one life to the next! Why shouldn&#8217;t you do significant things in this one life, however you define significant? I&#8217;m not going to define it &#8211; you know what I mean. I will talk mainly about science because that is what I have studied. But so far as I know, and I&#8217;ve been told by others, much of what I say applies to many fields. Outstanding work is characterized very much the same way in most fields, but I will confine myself to science.</p>
<p>In order to get at you individually, I must talk in the first person. I have to get you to drop modesty and say to yourself, &#8220;Yes, I would like to do first-class work.&#8221; Our society frowns on people who set out to do really good work. You&#8217;re not supposed to; luck is supposed to descend on you and you do great things by chance. Well, that&#8217;s a kind of dumb thing to say. I say, why shouldn&#8217;t you set out to do something significant. You don&#8217;t have to tell other people, but shouldn&#8217;t you say to yourself, &#8220;Yes, I would like to do something significant.&#8221;</p>
<p>In order to get to the second stage, I have to drop modesty and talk in the first person about what I&#8217;ve seen, what I&#8217;ve done, and what I&#8217;ve heard. I&#8217;m going to talk about people, some of whom you know, and I trust that when we leave, you won&#8217;t quote me as saying some of the things I said.</p>
<p>Let me start not logically, but psychologically. I find that the major objection is that people think great science is done by luck. It&#8217;s all a matter of luck. Well, consider Einstein. Note how many different things he did that were good. Was it all luck? Wasn&#8217;t it a little too repetitive? Consider Shannon. He didn&#8217;t do just information theory. Several years before, he did some other good things and some which are still locked up in the security of cryptography. He did many good things.</p>
<p>You see again and again, that it is more than one thing from a good person. Once in a while a person does only one thing in his whole life, and we&#8217;ll talk about that later, but a lot of times there is repetition. I claim that luck will not cover everything. And I will cite Pasteur who said, &#8220;Luck favors the prepared mind.&#8221; And I think that says it the way I believe it. There is indeed an element of luck, and no, there isn&#8217;t. The prepared mind sooner or later finds something important and does it. So yes, it is luck. The particular thing you do is luck, but that you do something is not.</p>
<p>For example, when I came to Bell Labs, I shared an office for a while with Shannon. At the same time he was doing information theory, I was doing coding theory. It is suspicious that the two of us did it at the same place and at the same time &#8211; it was in the atmosphere. And you can say, &#8220;Yes, it was luck.&#8221; On the other hand you can say, &#8220;But why of all the people in Bell Labs then were those the two who did it?&#8221; Yes, it is partly luck, and partly it is the prepared mind; but `partly&#8217; is the other thing I&#8217;m going to talk about. So, although I&#8217;ll come back several more times to luck, I want to dispose of this matter of luck as being the sole criterion whether you do great work or not. I claim you have some, but not total, control over it. And I will quote, finally, Newton on the matter. Newton said, &#8220;If others would think as hard as I did, then they would get similar results.&#8221;</p>
<p>One of the characteristics you see, and many people have it including great scientists, is that usually when they were young they had independent thoughts and had the courage to pursue them. For example, Einstein, somewhere around 12 or 14, asked himself the question, &#8220;What would a light wave look like if I went with the velocity of light to look at it?&#8221; Now he knew that electromagnetic theory says you cannot have a stationary local maximum. But if he moved along with the velocity of light, he would see a local maximum. He could see a contradiction at the age of 12, 14, or somewhere around there, that everything was not right and that the velocity of light had something peculiar. Is it luck that he finally created special relativity? Early on, he had laid down some of the pieces by thinking of the fragments. Now that&#8217;s the necessary but not sufficient condition. All of these items I will talk about are both luck and not luck.</p>
<p>How about having lots of `brains?&#8217; It sounds good. Most of you in this room probably have more than enough brains to do first-class work. But great work is something else than mere brains. Brains are measured in various ways. In mathematics, theoretical physics, astrophysics, typically brains correlates to a great extent with the ability to manipulate symbols. And so the typical IQ test is apt to score them fairly high. On the other hand, in other fields it is something different. For example, Bill Pfann, the fellow who did zone melting, came into my office one day. He had this idea dimly in his mind about what he wanted and he had some equations. It was pretty clear to me that this man didn&#8217;t know much mathematics and he wasn&#8217;t really articulate. His problem seemed interesting so I took it home and did a little work. I finally showed him how to run computers so he could compute his own answers. I gave him the power to compute. He went ahead, with negligible recognition from his own department, but ultimately he has collected all the prizes in the field. Once he got well started, his shyness, his awkwardness, his inarticulateness, fell away and he became much more productive in many other ways. Certainly he became much more articulate.</p>
<p>And I can cite another person in the same way. I trust he isn&#8217;t in the audience, i.e. a fellow named Clogston. I met him when I was working on a problem with John Pierce&#8217;s group and I didn&#8217;t think he had much. I asked my friends who had been with him at school, &#8220;Was he like that in graduate school?&#8221; &#8220;Yes,&#8221; they replied. Well I would have fired the fellow, but J. R. Pierce was smart and kept him on. Clogston finally did the Clogston cable. After that there was a steady stream of good ideas. One success brought him confidence and courage.</p>
<p>One of the characteristics of successful scientists is having courage. Once you get your courage up and believe that you can do important problems, then you can. If you think you can&#8217;t, almost surely you are not going to. Courage is one of the things that Shannon had supremely. You have only to think of his major theorem. He wants to create a method of coding, but he doesn&#8217;t know what to do so he makes a random code. Then he is stuck. And then he asks the impossible question, &#8220;What would the average random code do?&#8221; He then proves that the average code is arbitrarily good, and that therefore there must be at least one good code. Who but a man of infinite courage could have dared to think those thoughts? That is the characteristic of great scientists; they have courage. They will go forward under incredible circumstances; they think and continue to think.</p>
<p>Age is another factor which the physicists particularly worry about. They always are saying that you have got to do it when you are young or you will never do it. Einstein did things very early, and all the quantum mechanic fellows were disgustingly young when they did their best work. Most mathematicians, theoretical physicists, and astrophysicists do what we consider their best work when they are young. It is not that they don&#8217;t do good work in their old age but what we value most is often what they did early. On the other hand, in music, politics and literature, often what we consider their best work was done late. I don&#8217;t know how whatever field you are in fits this scale, but age has some effect.</p>
<p>But let me say why age seems to have the effect it does. In the first place if you do some good work you will find yourself on all kinds of committees and unable to do any more work. You may find yourself as I saw Brattain when he got a Nobel Prize. The day the prize was announced we all assembled in Arnold Auditorium; all three winners got up and made speeches. The third one, Brattain, practically with tears in his eyes, said, &#8220;I know about this Nobel-Prize effect and I am not going to let it affect me; I am going to remain good old Walter Brattain.&#8221; Well I said to myself, &#8220;That is nice.&#8221; But in a few weeks I saw it was affecting him. Now he could only work on great problems.</p>
<p>When you are famous it is hard to work on small problems. This is what did Shannon in. After information theory, what do you do for an encore? The great scientists often make this error. They fail to continue to plant the little acorns from which the mighty oak trees grow. They try to get the big thing right off. And that isn&#8217;t the way things go. So that is another reason why you find that when you get early recognition it seems to sterilize you. In fact I will give you my favorite quotation of many years. The Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton, in my opinion, has ruined more good scientists than any institution has created, judged by what they did before they came and judged by what they did after. Not that they weren&#8217;t good afterwards, but they were superb before they got there and were only good afterwards.</p>
<p>This brings up the subject, out of order perhaps, of working conditions. What most people think are the best working conditions, are not. Very clearly they are not because people are often most productive when working conditions are bad. One of the better times of the Cambridge Physical Laboratories was when they had practically shacks &#8211; they did some of the best physics ever.</p>
<p>I give you a story from my own private life. Early on it became evident to me that Bell Laboratories was not going to give me the conventional acre of programming people to program computing machines in absolute binary. It was clear they weren&#8217;t going to. But that was the way everybody did it. I could go to the West Coast and get a job with the airplane companies without any trouble, but the exciting people were at Bell Labs and the fellows out there in the airplane companies were not. I thought for a long while about, &#8220;Did I want to go or not?&#8221; and I wondered how I could get the best of two possible worlds. I finally said to myself, &#8220;Hamming, you think the machines can do practically everything. Why can&#8217;t you make them write programs?&#8221; What appeared at first to me as a defect forced me into automatic programming very early. What appears to be a fault, often, by a change of viewpoint, turns out to be one of the greatest assets you can have. But you are not likely to think that when you first look the thing and say, &#8220;Gee, I&#8217;m never going to get enough programmers, so how can I ever do any great programming?&#8221;</p>
<p>And there are many other stories of the same kind; Grace Hopper has similar ones. I think that if you look carefully you will see that often the great scientists, by turning the problem around a bit, changed a defect to an asset. For example, many scientists when they found they couldn&#8217;t do a problem finally began to study why not. They then turned it around the other way and said, &#8220;But of course, this is what it is&#8221; and got an important result. So ideal working conditions are very strange. The ones you want aren&#8217;t always the best ones for you.</p>
<p>Now for the matter of drive. You observe that most great scientists have tremendous drive. I worked for ten years with John Tukey at Bell Labs. He had tremendous drive. One day about three or four years after I joined, I discovered that John Tukey was slightly younger than I was. John was a genius and I clearly was not. Well I went storming into Bode&#8217;s office and said, &#8220;How can anybody my age know as much as John Tukey does?&#8221; He leaned back in his chair, put his hands behind his head, grinned slightly, and said, &#8220;You would be surprised Hamming, how much you would know if you worked as hard as he did that many years.&#8221; I simply slunk out of the office!</p>
<p>What Bode was saying was this: &#8220;Knowledge and productivity are like compound interest.&#8221; Given two people of approximately the same ability and one person who works ten percent more than the other, the latter will more than twice outproduce the former. The more you know, the more you learn; the more you learn, the more you can do; the more you can do, the more the opportunity &#8211; it is very much like compound interest. I don&#8217;t want to give you a rate, but it is a very high rate. Given two people with exactly the same ability, the one person who manages day in and day out to get in one more hour of thinking will be tremendously more productive over a lifetime. I took Bode&#8217;s remark to heart; I spent a good deal more of my time for some years trying to work a bit harder and I found, in fact, I could get more work done. I don&#8217;t like to say it in front of my wife, but I did sort of neglect her sometimes; I needed to study. You have to neglect things if you intend to get what you want done. There&#8217;s no question about this.</p>
<p>On this matter of drive Edison says, &#8220;Genius is 99% perspiration and 1% inspiration.&#8221; He may have been exaggerating, but the idea is that solid work, steadily applied, gets you surprisingly far. The steady application of effort with a little bit more work, <em>intelligently applied</em> is what does it. That&#8217;s the trouble; drive, misapplied, doesn&#8217;t get you anywhere. I&#8217;ve often wondered why so many of my good friends at Bell Labs who worked as hard or harder than I did, didn&#8217;t have so much to show for it. The misapplication of effort is a very serious matter. Just hard work is not enough &#8211; it must be applied sensibly.</p>
<p>There&#8217;s another trait on the side which I want to talk about; that trait is ambiguity. It took me a while to discover its importance. Most people like to believe something is or is not true. Great scientists tolerate ambiguity very well. They believe the theory enough to go ahead; they doubt it enough to notice the errors and faults so they can step forward and create the new replacement theory. If you believe too much you&#8217;ll never notice the flaws; if you doubt too much you won&#8217;t get started. It requires a lovely balance. But most great scientists are well aware of why their theories are true and they are also well aware of some slight misfits which don&#8217;t quite fit and they don&#8217;t forget it. Darwin writes in his autobiography that he found it necessary to write down every piece of evidence which appeared to contradict his beliefs because otherwise they would disappear from his mind. When you find apparent flaws you&#8217;ve got to be sensitive and keep track of those things, and keep an eye out for how they can be explained or how the theory can be changed to fit them. Those are often the great contributions. Great contributions are rarely done by adding another decimal place. It comes down to an emotional commitment. Most great scientists are completely committed to their problem. Those who don&#8217;t become committed seldom produce outstanding, first-class work.</p>
<p>Now again, emotional commitment is not enough. It is a necessary condition apparently. And I think I can tell you the reason why. Everybody who has studied creativity is driven finally to saying, &#8220;creativity comes out of your subconscious.&#8221; Somehow, suddenly, there it is. It just appears. Well, we know very little about the subconscious; but one thing you are pretty well aware of is that your dreams also come out of your subconscious. And you&#8217;re aware your dreams are, to a fair extent, a reworking of the experiences of the day. If you are deeply immersed and committed to a topic, day after day after day, your subconscious has nothing to do but work on your problem. And so you wake up one morning, or on some afternoon, and there&#8217;s the answer. For those who don&#8217;t get committed to their current problem, the subconscious goofs off on other things and doesn&#8217;t produce the big result. So the way to manage yourself is that when you have a real important problem you don&#8217;t let anything else get the center of your attention &#8211; you keep your thoughts on the problem. Keep your subconscious starved so it has to work on <em>your</em> problem, so you can sleep peacefully and get the answer in the morning, free.</p>
<p>Now Alan Chynoweth mentioned that I used to eat at the physics table. I had been eating with the mathematicians and I found out that I already knew a fair amount of mathematics; in fact, I wasn&#8217;t learning much. The physics table was, as he said, an exciting place, but I think he exaggerated on how much I contributed. It was very interesting to listen to Shockley, Brattain, Bardeen, J. B. Johnson, Ken McKay and other people, and I was learning a lot. But unfortunately a Nobel Prize came, and a promotion came, and what was left was the dregs. Nobody wanted what was left. Well, there was no use eating with them!</p>
<p>Over on the other side of the dining hall was a chemistry table. I had worked with one of the fellows, Dave McCall; furthermore he was courting our secretary at the time. I went over and said, &#8220;Do you mind if I join you?&#8221; They can&#8217;t say no, so I started eating with them for a while. And I started asking, &#8220;What are the important problems of your field?&#8221; And after a week or so, &#8220;What important problems are you working on?&#8221; And after some more time I came in one day and said, &#8220;If what you are doing is not important, and if you don&#8217;t think it is going to lead to something important, why are you at Bell Labs working on it?&#8221; I wasn&#8217;t welcomed after that; I had to find somebody else to eat with! That was in the spring.</p>
<p>In the fall, Dave McCall stopped me in the hall and said, &#8220;Hamming, that remark of yours got underneath my skin. I thought about it all summer, i.e. what were the important problems in my field. I haven&#8217;t changed my research,&#8221; he says, &#8220;but I think it was well worthwhile.&#8221; And I said, &#8220;Thank you Dave,&#8221; and went on. I noticed a couple of months later he was made the head of the department. I noticed the other day he was a Member of the National Academy of Engineering. I noticed he has succeeded. I have never heard the names of any of the other fellows at that table mentioned in science and scientific circles. They were unable to ask themselves, &#8220;What are the important problems in my field?&#8221;</p>
<p>If you do not work on an important problem, it&#8217;s unlikely you&#8217;ll do important work. It&#8217;s perfectly obvious. Great scientists have thought through, in a careful way, a number of important problems in their field, and they keep an eye on wondering how to attack them. Let me warn you, `important problem&#8217; must be phrased carefully. The three outstanding problems in physics, in a certain sense, were never worked on while I was at Bell Labs. By important I mean guaranteed a Nobel Prize and any sum of money you want to mention. We didn&#8217;t work on (1) time travel, (2) teleportation, and (3) antigravity. They are not important problems because we do not have an attack. It&#8217;s not the consequence that makes a problem important, it is that you have a reasonable attack. That is what makes a problem important. When I say that most scientists don&#8217;t work on important problems, I mean it in that sense. The average scientist, so far as I can make out, spends almost all his time working on problems which he believes will not be important and he also doesn&#8217;t believe that they will lead to important problems.</p>
<p>I spoke earlier about planting acorns so that oaks will grow. You can&#8217;t always know exactly where to be, but you can keep active in places where something might happen. And even if you believe that great science is a matter of luck, you can stand on a mountain top where lightning strikes; you don&#8217;t have to hide in the valley where you&#8217;re safe. But the average scientist does routine safe work almost all the time and so he (or she) doesn&#8217;t produce much. It&#8217;s that simple. If you want to do great work, you clearly must work on important problems, and you should have an idea.</p>
<p>Along those lines at some urging from John Tukey and others, I finally adopted what I called &#8220;Great Thoughts Time.&#8221; When I went to lunch Friday noon, I would only discuss great thoughts after that. By great thoughts I mean ones like: &#8220;What will be the role of computers in all of AT&amp;T?&#8221;, &#8220;How will computers change science?&#8221; For example, I came up with the observation at that time that nine out of ten experiments were done in the lab and one in ten on the computer. I made a remark to the vice presidents one time, that it would be reversed, i.e. nine out of ten experiments would be done on the computer and one in ten in the lab. They knew I was a crazy mathematician and had no sense of reality. I knew they were wrong and they&#8217;ve been proved wrong while I have been proved right. They built laboratories when they didn&#8217;t need them. I saw that computers were transforming science because I spent a lot of time asking &#8220;What will be the impact of computers on science and how can I change it?&#8221; I asked myself, &#8220;How is it going to change Bell Labs?&#8221; I remarked one time, in the same address, that more than one-half of the people at Bell Labs will be interacting closely with computing machines before I leave. Well, you all have terminals now. I thought hard about where was my field going, where were the opportunities, and what were the important things to do. Let me go there so there is a chance I can do important things.</p>
<p>Most great scientists know many important problems. They have something between 10 and 20 important problems for which they are looking for an attack. And when they see a new idea come up, one hears them say &#8220;Well that bears on this problem.&#8221; They drop all the other things and get after it. Now I can tell you a horror story that was told to me but I can&#8217;t vouch for the truth of it. I was sitting in an airport talking to a friend of mine from Los Alamos about how it was lucky that the fission experiment occurred over in Europe when it did because that got us working on the atomic bomb here in the US. He said &#8220;No; at Berkeley we had gathered a bunch of data; we didn&#8217;t get around to reducing it because we were building some more equipment, but if we had reduced that data we would have found fission.&#8221; They had it in their hands and they didn&#8217;t pursue it. They came in second!</p>
<p>The great scientists, when an opportunity opens up, get after it and they pursue it. They drop all other things. They get rid of other things and they get after an idea because they had already thought the thing through. Their minds are prepared; they see the opportunity and they go after it. Now of course lots of times it doesn&#8217;t work out, but you don&#8217;t have to hit many of them to do some great science. It&#8217;s kind of easy. One of the chief tricks is to live a long time!</p>
<p>Another trait, it took me a while to notice. I noticed the following facts about people who work with the door open or the door closed. I notice that if you have the door to your office closed, you get more work done today and tomorrow, and you are more productive than most. But 10 years later somehow you don&#8217;t know quite know what problems are worth working on; all the hard work you do is sort of tangential in importance. He who works with the door open gets all kinds of interruptions, but he also occasionally gets clues as to what the world is and what might be important. Now I cannot prove the cause and effect sequence because you might say, &#8220;The closed door is symbolic of a closed mind.&#8221; I don&#8217;t know. But I can say there is a pretty good correlation between those who work with the doors open and those who ultimately do important things, although people who work with doors closed often work harder. Somehow they seem to work on slightly the wrong thing &#8211; not much, but enough that they miss fame.</p>
<p>I want to talk on another topic. It is based on the song which I think many of you know, &#8220;It ain&#8217;t what you do, it&#8217;s the way that you do it.&#8221; I&#8217;ll start with an example of my own. I was conned into doing on a digital computer, in the absolute binary days, a problem which the best analog computers couldn&#8217;t do. And I was getting an answer. When I thought carefully and said to myself, &#8220;You know, Hamming, you&#8217;re going to have to file a report on this military job; after you spend a lot of money you&#8217;re going to have to account for it and every analog installation is going to want the report to see if they can&#8217;t find flaws in it.&#8221; I was doing the required integration by a rather crummy method, to say the least, but I was getting the answer. And I realized that in truth the problem was not just to get the answer; it was to demonstrate for the first time, and beyond question, that I could beat the analog computer on its own ground with a digital machine. I reworked the method of solution, created a theory which was nice and elegant, and changed the way we computed the answer; the results were no different. The published report had an elegant method which was later known for years as &#8220;Hamming&#8217;s Method of Integrating Differential Equations.&#8221; It is somewhat obsolete now, but for a while it was a very good method. By changing the problem slightly, I did important work rather than trivial work.</p>
<p>In the same way, when using the machine up in the attic in the early days, I was solving one problem after another after another; a fair number were successful and there were a few failures. I went home one Friday after finishing a problem, and curiously enough I wasn&#8217;t happy; I was depressed. I could see life being a long sequence of one problem after another after another. After quite a while of thinking I decided, &#8220;No, I should be in the mass production of a variable product. I should be concerned with <em>all</em> of next year&#8217;s problems, not just the one in front of my face.&#8221; By changing the question I still got the same kind of results or better, but I changed things and did important work. I attacked the major problem &#8211; How do I conquer machines and do all of next year&#8217;s problems when I don&#8217;t know what they are going to be? How do I prepare for it? How do I do this one so I&#8217;ll be on top of it? How do I obey Newton&#8217;s rule? He said, &#8220;If I have seen further than others, it is because I&#8217;ve stood on the shoulders of giants.&#8221; These days we stand on each other&#8217;s feet!</p>
<p>You should do your job in such a fashion that others can build on top of it, so they will indeed say, &#8220;Yes, I&#8217;ve stood on so and so&#8217;s shoulders and I saw further.&#8221; The essence of science is cumulative. By changing a problem slightly you can often do great work rather than merely good work. Instead of attacking isolated problems, I made the resolution that I would never again solve an isolated problem except as characteristic of a class.</p>
<p>Now if you are much of a mathematician you know that the effort to generalize often means that the solution is simple. Often by stopping and saying, &#8220;This is the problem he wants but this is characteristic of so and so. Yes, I can attack the whole class with a far superior method than the particular one because I was earlier embedded in needless detail.&#8221; The business of abstraction frequently makes things simple. Furthermore, I filed away the methods and prepared for the future problems.</p>
<p>To end this part, I&#8217;ll remind you, &#8220;It is a poor workman who blames his tools &#8211; the good man gets on with the job, given what he&#8217;s got, and gets the best answer he can.&#8221; And I suggest that by altering the problem, by looking at the thing differently, you can make a great deal of difference in your final productivity because you can either do it in such a fashion that people can indeed build on what you&#8217;ve done, or you can do it in such a fashion that the next person has to essentially duplicate again what you&#8217;ve done. It isn&#8217;t just a matter of the job, it&#8217;s the way you write the report, the way you write the paper, the whole attitude. It&#8217;s just as easy to do a broad, general job as one very special case. And it&#8217;s much more satisfying and rewarding!</p>
<p>I have now come down to a topic which is very distasteful; it is not sufficient to do a job, you have to sell it. `Selling&#8217; to a scientist is an awkward thing to do. It&#8217;s very ugly; you shouldn&#8217;t have to do it. The world is supposed to be waiting, and when you do something great, they should rush out and welcome it. But the fact is everyone is busy with their own work. You must present it so well that they will set aside what they are doing, look at what you&#8217;ve done, read it, and come back and say, &#8220;Yes, that was good.&#8221; I suggest that when you open a journal, as you turn the pages, you ask why you read some articles and not others. You had better write your report so when it is published in the Physical Review, or wherever else you want it, as the readers are turning the pages they won&#8217;t just turn your pages but they will stop and read yours. If they don&#8217;t stop and read it, you won&#8217;t get credit.</p>
<p>There are three things you have to do in selling. You have to learn to write clearly and well so that people will read it, you must learn to give reasonably formal talks, and you also must learn to give informal talks. We had a lot of so-called `back room scientists.&#8217; In a conference, they would keep quiet. Three weeks later after a decision was made they filed a report saying why you should do so and so. Well, it was too late. They would not stand up right in the middle of a hot conference, in the middle of activity, and say, &#8220;We should do this for these reasons.&#8221; You need to master that form of communication as well as prepared speeches.</p>
<p>When I first started, I got practically physically ill while giving a speech, and I was very, very nervous. I realized I either had to learn to give speeches smoothly or I would essentially partially cripple my whole career. The first time IBM asked me to give a speech in New York one evening, I decided I was going to give a really good speech, a speech that was wanted, not a technical one but a broad one, and at the end if they liked it, I&#8217;d quietly say, &#8220;Any time you want one I&#8217;ll come in and give you one.&#8221; As a result, I got a great deal of practice giving speeches to a limited audience and I got over being afraid. Furthermore, I could also then study what methods were effective and what were ineffective.</p>
<p>While going to meetings I had already been studying why some papers are remembered and most are not. The technical person wants to give a highly limited technical talk. Most of the time the audience wants a broad general talk and wants much more survey and background than the speaker is willing to give. As a result, many talks are ineffective. The speaker names a topic and suddenly plunges into the details he&#8217;s solved. Few people in the audience may follow. You should paint a general picture to say why it&#8217;s important, and then slowly give a sketch of what was done. Then a larger number of people will say, &#8220;Yes, Joe has done that,&#8221; or &#8220;Mary has done that; I really see where it is; yes, Mary really gave a good talk; I understand what Mary has done.&#8221; The tendency is to give a highly restricted, safe talk; this is usually ineffective. Furthermore, many talks are filled with far too much information. So I say this idea of selling is obvious.</p>
<p>Let me summarize. You&#8217;ve got to work on important problems. I deny that it is all luck, but I admit there is a fair element of luck. I subscribe to Pasteur&#8217;s &#8220;Luck favors the prepared mind.&#8221; I favor heavily what I did. Friday afternoons for years &#8211; great thoughts only &#8211; means that I committed 10% of my time trying to understand the bigger problems in the field, i.e. what was and what was not important. I found in the early days I had believed `this&#8217; and yet had spent all week marching in `that&#8217; direction. It was kind of foolish. If I really believe the action is over there, why do I march in this direction? I either had to change my goal or change what I did. So I changed something I did and I marched in the direction I thought was important. It&#8217;s that easy.</p>
<p>Now you might tell me you haven&#8217;t got control over what you have to work on. Well, when you first begin, you may not. But once you&#8217;re moderately successful, there are more people asking for results than you can deliver and you have some power of choice, but not completely. I&#8217;ll tell you a story about that, and it bears on the subject of educating your boss. I had a boss named Schelkunoff; he was, and still is, a very good friend of mine. Some military person came to me and demanded some answers by Friday. Well, I had already dedicated my computing resources to reducing data on the fly for a group of scientists; I was knee deep in short, small, important problems. This military person wanted me to solve his problem by the end of the day on Friday. I said, &#8220;No, I&#8217;ll give it to you Monday. I can work on it over the weekend. I&#8217;m not going to do it now.&#8221; He goes down to my boss, Schelkunoff, and Schelkunoff says, &#8220;You must run this for him; he&#8217;s got to have it by Friday.&#8221; I tell him, &#8220;Why do I?&#8221;; he says, &#8220;You have to.&#8221; I said, &#8220;Fine, Sergei, but you&#8217;re sitting in your office Friday afternoon catching the late bus home to watch as this fellow walks out that door.&#8221; I gave the military person the answers late Friday afternoon. I then went to Schelkunoff&#8217;s office and sat down; as the man goes out I say, &#8220;You see Schelkunoff, this fellow has nothing under his arm; but I gave him the answers.&#8221; On Monday morning Schelkunoff called him up and said, &#8220;Did you come in to work over the weekend?&#8221; I could hear, as it were, a pause as the fellow ran through his mind of what was going to happen; but he knew he would have had to sign in, and he&#8217;d better not say he had when he hadn&#8217;t, so he said he hadn&#8217;t. Ever after that Schelkunoff said, &#8220;You set your deadlines; you can change them.&#8221;</p>
<p>One lesson was sufficient to educate my boss as to why I didn&#8217;t want to do big jobs that displaced exploratory research and why I was justified in not doing crash jobs which absorb all the research computing facilities. I wanted instead to use the facilities to compute a large number of small problems. Again, in the early days, I was limited in computing capacity and it was clear, in my area, that a &#8220;mathematician had no use for machines.&#8221; But I needed more machine capacity. Every time I had to tell some scientist in some other area, &#8220;No I can&#8217;t; I haven&#8217;t the machine capacity,&#8221; he complained. I said &#8220;Go tell <em>your</em> Vice President that Hamming needs more computing capacity.&#8221; After a while I could see what was happening up there at the top; many people said to my Vice President, &#8220;Your man needs more computing capacity.&#8221; I got it!</p>
<p>I also did a second thing. When I loaned what little programming power we had to help in the early days of computing, I said, &#8220;We are not getting the recognition for our programmers that they deserve. When you publish a paper you will thank that programmer or you aren&#8217;t getting any more help from me. That programmer is going to be thanked by name; she&#8217;s worked hard.&#8221; I waited a couple of years. I then went through a year of BSTJ articles and counted what fraction thanked some programmer. I took it into the boss and said, &#8220;That&#8217;s the central role computing is playing in Bell Labs; if the BSTJ is important, that&#8217;s how important computing is.&#8221; He had to give in. You can educate your bosses. It&#8217;s a hard job. In this talk I&#8217;m only viewing from the bottom up; I&#8217;m not viewing from the top down. But I am telling you how you can get what you want in spite of top management. You have to sell your ideas there also.</p>
<p>Well I now come down to the topic, &#8220;Is the effort to be a great scientist worth it?&#8221; To answer this, you must ask people. When you get beyond their modesty, most people will say, &#8220;Yes, doing really first-class work, and knowing it, is as good as wine, women and song put together,&#8221; or if it&#8217;s a woman she says, &#8220;It is as good as wine, men and song put together.&#8221; And if you look at the bosses, they tend to come back or ask for reports, trying to participate in those moments of discovery. They&#8217;re always in the way. So evidently those who have done it, want to do it again. But it is a limited survey. I have never dared to go out and ask those who didn&#8217;t do great work how they felt about the matter. It&#8217;s a biased sample, but I still think it is worth the struggle. I think it is very definitely worth the struggle to try and do first-class work because the truth is, the value is in the struggle more than it is in the result. The struggle to make something of yourself seems to be worthwhile in itself. The success and fame are sort of dividends, in my opinion.</p>
<p>I&#8217;ve told you how to do it. It is so easy, so why do so many people, with all their talents, fail? For example, my opinion, to this day, is that there are in the mathematics department at Bell Labs quite a few people far more able and far better endowed than I, but they didn&#8217;t produce as much. Some of them did produce more than I did; Shannon produced more than I did, and some others produced a lot, but I was highly productive against a lot of other fellows who were better equipped. Why is it so? What happened to them? Why do so many of the people who have great promise, fail?</p>
<p>Well, one of the reasons is drive and commitment. The people who do great work with less ability but who are committed to it, get more done that those who have great skill and dabble in it, who work during the day and go home and do other things and come back and work the next day. They don&#8217;t have the deep commitment that is apparently necessary for really first-class work. They turn out lots of good work, but we were talking, remember, about first-class work. There is a difference. Good people, very talented people, almost always turn out good work. We&#8217;re talking about the outstanding work, the type of work that gets the Nobel Prize and gets recognition.</p>
<p>The second thing is, I think, the problem of personality defects. Now I&#8217;ll cite a fellow whom I met out in Irvine. He had been the head of a computing center and he was temporarily on assignment as a special assistant to the president of the university. It was obvious he had a job with a great future. He took me into his office one time and showed me his method of getting letters done and how he took care of his correspondence. He pointed out how inefficient the secretary was. He kept all his letters stacked around there; he knew where everything was. And he would, on his word processor, get the letter out. He was bragging how marvelous it was and how he could get so much more work done without the secretary&#8217;s interference. Well, behind his back, I talked to the secretary. The secretary said, &#8220;Of course I can&#8217;t help him; I don&#8217;t get his mail. He won&#8217;t give me the stuff to log in; I don&#8217;t know where he puts it on the floor. Of course I can&#8217;t help him.&#8221; So I went to him and said, &#8220;Look, if you adopt the present method and do what you can do single-handedly, you can go just that far and no farther than you can do single-handedly. If you will learn to work with the system, you can go as far as the system will support you.&#8221; And, he never went any further. He had his personality defect of wanting total control and was not willing to recognize that you need the support of the system.</p>
<p>You find this happening again and again; good scientists will fight the system rather than learn to work with the system and take advantage of all the system has to offer. It has a lot, if you learn how to use it. It takes patience, but you can learn how to use the system pretty well, and you can learn how to get around it. After all, if you want a decision `No&#8217;, you just go to your boss and get a `No&#8217; easy. If you want to do something, don&#8217;t ask, do it. Present him with an accomplished fact. Don&#8217;t give him a chance to tell you `No&#8217;. But if you want a `No&#8217;, it&#8217;s easy to get a `No&#8217;.</p>
<p>Another personality defect is ego assertion and I&#8217;ll speak in this case of my own experience. I came from Los Alamos and in the early days I was using a machine in New York at 590 Madison Avenue where we merely rented time. I was still dressing in western clothes, big slash pockets, a bolo and all those things. I vaguely noticed that I was not getting as good service as other people. So I set out to measure. You came in and you waited for your turn; I felt I was not getting a fair deal. I said to myself, &#8220;Why? No Vice President at IBM said, `Give Hamming a bad time&#8217;. It is the secretaries at the bottom who are doing this. When a slot appears, they&#8217;ll rush to find someone to slip in, but they go out and find somebody else. Now, why? I haven&#8217;t mistreated them.&#8221; Answer, I wasn&#8217;t dressing the way they felt somebody in that situation should. It came down to just that &#8211; I wasn&#8217;t dressing properly. I had to make the decision &#8211; was I going to assert my ego and dress the way I wanted to and have it steadily drain my effort from my professional life, or was I going to appear to conform better? I decided I would make an effort to appear to conform properly. The moment I did, I got much better service. And now, as an old colorful character, I get better service than other people.</p>
<p>You should dress according to the expectations of the audience spoken to. If I am going to give an address at the MIT computer center, I dress with a bolo and an old corduroy jacket or something else. I know enough not to let my clothes, my appearance, my manners get in the way of what I care about. An enormous number of scientists feel they must assert their ego and do their thing their way. They have got to be able to do this, that, or the other thing, and they pay a steady price.</p>
<p>John Tukey almost always dressed very casually. He would go into an important office and it would take a long time before the other fellow realized that this is a first-class man and he had better listen. For a long time John has had to overcome this kind of hostility. It&#8217;s wasted effort! I didn&#8217;t say you should conform; I said &#8220;The <em>appearance of conforming</em> gets you a long way.&#8221; If you chose to assert your ego in any number of ways, &#8220;I am going to do it my way,&#8221; you pay a small steady price throughout the whole of your professional career. And this, over a whole lifetime, adds up to an enormous amount of needless trouble.</p>
<p>By taking the trouble to tell jokes to the secretaries and being a little friendly, I got superb secretarial help. For instance, one time for some idiot reason all the reproducing services at Murray Hill were tied up. Don&#8217;t ask me how, but they were. I wanted something done. My secretary called up somebody at Holmdel, hopped the company car, made the hour-long trip down and got it reproduced, and then came back. It was a payoff for the times I had made an effort to cheer her up, tell her jokes and be friendly; it was that little extra work that later paid off for me. By realizing you have to use the system and studying how to get the system to do your work, you learn how to adapt the system to your desires. Or you can fight it steadily, as a small undeclared war, for the whole of your life.</p>
<p>And I think John Tukey paid a terrible price needlessly. He was a genius anyhow, but I think it would have been far better, and far simpler, had he been willing to conform a little bit instead of ego asserting. He is going to dress the way he wants all of the time. It applies not only to dress but to a thousand other things; people will continue to fight the system. Not that you shouldn&#8217;t occasionally!</p>
<p>When they moved the library from the middle of Murray Hill to the far end, a friend of mine put in a request for a bicycle. Well, the organization was not dumb. They waited awhile and sent back a map of the grounds saying, &#8220;Will you please indicate on this map what paths you are going to take so we can get an insurance policy covering you.&#8221; A few more weeks went by. They then asked, &#8220;Where are you going to store the bicycle and how will it be locked so we can do so and so.&#8221; He finally realized that of course he was going to be red-taped to death so he gave in. He rose to be the President of Bell Laboratories.</p>
<p>Barney Oliver was a good man. He wrote a letter one time to the IEEE. At that time the official shelf space at Bell Labs was so much and the height of the IEEE Proceedings at that time was larger; and since you couldn&#8217;t change the size of the official shelf space he wrote this letter to the IEEE Publication person saying, &#8220;Since so many IEEE members were at Bell Labs and since the official space was so high the journal size should be changed.&#8221; He sent it for his boss&#8217;s signature. Back came a carbon with his signature, but he still doesn&#8217;t know whether the original was sent or not. I am not saying you shouldn&#8217;t make gestures of reform. I am saying that my study of able people is that they don&#8217;t get themselves <em>committed</em> to that kind of warfare. They play it a little bit and drop it and get on with their work.</p>
<p>Many a second-rate fellow gets caught up in some little twitting of the system, and carries it through to warfare. He expends his energy in a foolish project. Now you are going to tell me that somebody has to change the system. I agree; somebody&#8217;s has to. Which do you want to be? The person who changes the system or the person who does first-class science? Which person is it that you want to be? Be clear, when you fight the system and struggle with it, what you are doing, how far to go out of amusement, and how much to waste your effort fighting the system. My advice is to let somebody else do it and you get on with becoming a first-class scientist. Very few of you have the ability to both reform the system <em>and</em> become a first-class scientist.</p>
<p>On the other hand, we can&#8217;t always give in. There are times when a certain amount of rebellion is sensible. I have observed almost all scientists enjoy a certain amount of twitting the system for the sheer love of it. What it comes down to basically is that you cannot be original in one area without having originality in others. Originality is being different. You can&#8217;t be an original scientist without having some other original characteristics. But many a scientist has let his quirks in other places make him pay a far higher price than is necessary for the ego satisfaction he or she gets. I&#8217;m not against all ego assertion; I&#8217;m against some.</p>
<p>Another fault is anger. Often a scientist becomes angry, and this is no way to handle things. Amusement, yes, anger, no. Anger is misdirected. You should follow and cooperate rather than struggle against the system all the time.</p>
<p>Another thing you should look for is the positive side of things instead of the negative. I have already given you several examples, and there are many, many more; how, given the situation, by changing the way I looked at it, I converted what was apparently a defect to an asset. I&#8217;ll give you another example. I am an egotistical person; there is no doubt about it. I knew that most people who took a sabbatical to write a book, didn&#8217;t finish it on time. So before I left, I told all my friends that when I come back, that book was going to be done! Yes, I would have it done &#8211; I&#8217;d have been ashamed to come back without it! I used my ego to make myself behave the way I wanted to. I bragged about something so I&#8217;d have to perform. I found out many times, like a cornered rat in a real trap, I was surprisingly capable. I have found that it paid to say, &#8220;Oh yes, I&#8217;ll get the answer for you Tuesday,&#8221; not having any idea how to do it. By Sunday night I was really hard thinking on how I was going to deliver by Tuesday. I often put my pride on the line and sometimes I failed, but as I said, like a cornered rat I&#8217;m surprised how often I did a good job. I think you need to learn to use yourself. I think you need to know how to convert a situation from one view to another which would increase the chance of success.</p>
<p>Now self-delusion in humans is very, very common. There are enumerable ways of you changing a thing and kidding yourself and making it look some other way. When you ask, &#8220;Why didn&#8217;t you do such and such,&#8221; the person has a thousand alibis. If you look at the history of science, usually these days there are 10 people right there ready, and we pay off for the person who is there first. The other nine fellows say, &#8220;Well, I had the idea but I didn&#8217;t do it and so on and so on.&#8221; There are so many alibis. Why weren&#8217;t you first? Why didn&#8217;t you do it right? Don&#8217;t try an alibi. Don&#8217;t try and kid yourself. You can tell other people all the alibis you want. I don&#8217;t mind. But to yourself try to be honest.</p>
<p>If you really want to be a first-class scientist you need to know yourself, your weaknesses, your strengths, and your bad faults, like my egotism. How can you convert a fault to an asset? How can you convert a situation where you haven&#8217;t got enough manpower to move into a direction when that&#8217;s exactly what you need to do? I say again that I have seen, as I studied the history, the successful scientist changed the viewpoint and what was a defect became an asset.</p>
<p>In summary, I claim that some of the reasons why so many people who have greatness within their grasp don&#8217;t succeed are: they don&#8217;t work on important problems, they don&#8217;t become emotionally involved, they don&#8217;t try and change what is difficult to some other situation which is easily done but is still important, and they keep giving themselves alibis why they don&#8217;t. They keep saying that it is a matter of luck. I&#8217;ve told you how easy it is; furthermore I&#8217;ve told you how to reform. Therefore, go forth and become great scientists!</p>
<p>(End of the formal part of the talk.)</p>
<p><strong>DISCUSSION &#8211; QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS</strong></p>
<p><em>A. G. Chynoweth:</em> Well that was 50 minutes of concentrated wisdom and observations accumulated over a fantastic career; I lost track of all the observations that were striking home. Some of them are very very timely. One was the plea for more computer capacity; I was hearing nothing but that this morning from several people, over and over again. So that was right on the mark today even though here we are 20 &#8211; 30 years after when you were making similar remarks, Dick. I can think of all sorts of lessons that all of us can draw from your talk. And for one, as I walk around the halls in the future I hope I won&#8217;t see as many closed doors in Bellcore. That was one observation I thought was very intriguing.</p>
<p>Thank you very, very much indeed Dick; that was a wonderful recollection. I&#8217;ll now open it up for questions. I&#8217;m sure there are many people who would like to take up on some of the points that Dick was making.</p>
<p><em>Hamming:</em> First let me respond to Alan Chynoweth about computing. I had computing in research and for 10 years I kept telling my management, &#8220;Get that !&amp;@#% machine out of research. We are being forced to run problems all the time. We can&#8217;t do research because were too busy operating and running the computing machines.&#8221; Finally the message got through. They were going to move computing out of research to someplace else. I was persona non grata to say the least and I was surprised that people didn&#8217;t kick my shins because everybody was having their toy taken away from them. I went in to Ed David&#8217;s office and said, &#8220;Look Ed, you&#8217;ve got to give your researchers a machine. If you give them a great big machine, we&#8217;ll be back in the same trouble we were before, so busy keeping it going we can&#8217;t think. Give them the smallest machine you can because they are very able people. They will learn how to do things on a small machine instead of mass computing.&#8221; As far as I&#8217;m concerned, that&#8217;s how UNIX arose. We gave them a moderately small machine and they decided to make it do great things. They had to come up with a system to do it on. It is called UNIX!</p>
<p><em>A. G. Chynoweth:</em> I just have to pick up on that one. In our present environment, Dick, while we wrestle with some of the red tape attributed to, or required by, the regulators, there is one quote that one exasperated AVP came up with and I&#8217;ve used it over and over again. He growled that, &#8220;UNIX was never a deliverable!&#8221;</p>
<p><em>Question:</em> What about personal stress? Does that seem to make a difference?</p>
<p><em>Hamming:</em> Yes, it does. If you don&#8217;t get emotionally involved, it doesn&#8217;t. I had incipient ulcers most of the years that I was at Bell Labs. I have since gone off to the Naval Postgraduate School and laid back somewhat, and now my health is much better. But if you want to be a great scientist you&#8217;re going to have to put up with stress. You can lead a nice life; you can be a nice guy or you can be a great scientist. But nice guys end last, is what Leo Durocher said. If you want to lead a nice happy life with a lot of recreation and everything else, you&#8217;ll lead a nice life.</p>
<p><em>Question:</em> The remarks about having courage, no one could argue with; but those of us who have gray hairs or who are well established don&#8217;t have to worry too much. But what I sense among the young people these days is a real concern over the risk taking in a highly competitive environment. Do you have any words of wisdom on this?</p>
<p><em>Hamming:</em> I&#8217;ll quote Ed David more. Ed David was concerned about the general loss of nerve in our society. It does seem to me that we&#8217;ve gone through various periods. Coming out of the war, coming out of Los Alamos where we built the bomb, coming out of building the radars and so on, there came into the mathematics department, and the research area, a group of people with a lot of guts. They&#8217;ve just seen things done; they&#8217;ve just won a war which was fantastic. We had reasons for having courage and therefore we did a great deal. I can&#8217;t arrange that situation to do it again. I cannot blame the present generation for not having it, but I agree with what you say; I just cannot attach blame to it. It doesn&#8217;t seem to me they have the desire for greatness; they lack the courage to do it. But we had, because we were in a favorable circumstance to have it; we just came through a tremendously successful war. In the war we were looking very, very bad for a long while; it was a very desperate struggle as you well know. And our success, I think, gave us courage and self confidence; that&#8217;s why you see, beginning in the late forties through the fifties, a tremendous productivity at the labs which was stimulated from the earlier times. Because many of us were earlier forced to learn other things &#8211; we were forced to learn the things we didn&#8217;t want to learn, we were forced to have an open door &#8211; and then we could exploit those things we learned. It is true, and I can&#8217;t do anything about it; I cannot blame the present generation either. It&#8217;s just a fact.</p>
<p><em>Question:</em> Is there something management could or should do?</p>
<p><em>Hamming:</em> Management can do very little. If you want to talk about managing research, that&#8217;s a totally different talk. I&#8217;d take another hour doing that. This talk is about how the individual gets very successful research done in spite of anything the management does or in spite of any other opposition. And how do you do it? Just as I observe people doing it. It&#8217;s just that simple and that hard!</p>
<p><em>Question:</em> Is brainstorming a daily process?</p>
<p><em>Hamming:</em> Once that was a very popular thing, but it seems not to have paid off. For myself I find it desirable to talk to other people; but a session of brainstorming is seldom worthwhile. I do go in to strictly talk to somebody and say, &#8220;Look, I think there has to be something here. Here&#8217;s what I think I see &#8230;&#8221; and then begin talking back and forth. But you want to pick capable people. To use another analogy, you know the idea called the `critical mass.&#8217; If you have enough stuff you have critical mass. There is also the idea I used to call `sound absorbers&#8217;. When you get too many sound absorbers, you give out an idea and they merely say, &#8220;Yes, yes, yes.&#8221; What you want to do is get that critical mass in action; &#8220;Yes, that reminds me of so and so,&#8221; or, &#8220;Have you thought about that or this?&#8221; When you talk to other people, you want to get rid of those sound absorbers who are nice people but merely say, &#8220;Oh yes,&#8221; and to find those who will stimulate you right back.</p>
<p>For example, you couldn&#8217;t talk to John Pierce without being stimulated very quickly. There were a group of other people I used to talk with. For example there was Ed Gilbert; I used to go down to his office regularly and ask him questions and listen and come back stimulated. I picked my people carefully with whom I did or whom I didn&#8217;t brainstorm because the sound absorbers are a curse. They are just nice guys; they fill the whole space and they contribute nothing except they absorb ideas and the new ideas just die away instead of echoing on. Yes, I find it necessary to talk to people. I think people with closed doors fail to do this so they fail to get their ideas sharpened, such as &#8220;Did you ever notice something over here?&#8221; I never knew anything about it &#8211; I can go over and look. Somebody points the way. On my visit here, I have already found several books that I must read when I get home. I talk to people and ask questions when I think they can answer me and give me clues that I do not know about. I go out and look!</p>
<p><em>Question:</em> What kind of tradeoffs did you make in allocating your time for reading and writing and actually doing research?</p>
<p><em>Hamming:</em> I believed, in my early days, that you should spend at least as much time in the polish and presentation as you did in the original research. Now at least 50% of the time must go for the presentation. It&#8217;s a big, big number.</p>
<p><em>Question:</em> How much effort should go into library work?</p>
<p><em>Hamming:</em> It depends upon the field. I will say this about it. There was a fellow at Bell Labs, a very, very, smart guy. He was always in the library; he read everything. If you wanted references, you went to him and he gave you all kinds of references. But in the middle of forming these theories, I formed a proposition: there would be no effect named after him in the long run. He is now retired from Bell Labs and is an Adjunct Professor. He was very valuable; I&#8217;m not questioning that. He wrote some very good Physical Review articles; but there&#8217;s no effect named after him because he read too much. If you read all the time what other people have done you will think the way they thought. If you want to think new thoughts that are different, then do what a lot of creative people do &#8211; get the problem reasonably clear and then refuse to look at any answers until you&#8217;ve thought the problem through carefully how you would do it, how you could slightly change the problem to be the correct one. So yes, you need to keep up. You need to keep up more to find out what the problems are than to read to find the solutions. The reading is necessary to know what is going on and what is possible. But reading to get the solutions does not seem to be the way to do great research. So I&#8217;ll give you two answers. You read; but it is not the amount, it is the way you read that counts.</p>
<p><em>Question:</em> How do you get your name attached to things?</p>
<p><em>Hamming:</em> By doing great work. I&#8217;ll tell you the hamming window one. I had given Tukey a hard time, quite a few times, and I got a phone call from him from Princeton to me at Murray Hill. I knew that he was writing up power spectra and he asked me if I would mind if he called a certain window a &#8220;Hamming window.&#8221; And I said to him, &#8220;Come on, John; you know perfectly well I did only a small part of the work but you also did a lot.&#8221; He said, &#8220;Yes, Hamming, but you contributed a lot of small things; you&#8217;re entitled to some credit.&#8221; So he called it the hamming window. Now, let me go on. I had twitted John frequently about true greatness. I said true greatness is when your name is like ampere, watt, and fourier &#8211; when it&#8217;s spelled with a lower case letter. That&#8217;s how the hamming window came about.</p>
<p><em>Question:</em> Dick, would you care to comment on the relative effectiveness between giving talks, writing papers, and writing books?</p>
<p><em>Hamming:</em> In the short-haul, papers are very important if you want to stimulate someone tomorrow. If you want to get recognition long-haul, it seems to me writing books is more contribution because most of us need orientation. In this day of practically infinite knowledge, we need orientation to find our way. Let me tell you what infinite knowledge is. Since from the time of Newton to now, we have come close to doubling knowledge every 17 years, more or less. And we cope with that, essentially, by specialization. In the next 340 years at that rate, there will be 20 doublings, i.e. a million, and there will be a million fields of specialty for every one field now. It isn&#8217;t going to happen. The present growth of knowledge will choke itself off until we get different tools. I believe that books which try to digest, coordinate, get rid of the duplication, get rid of the less fruitful methods and present the underlying ideas clearly of what we know now, will be the things the future generations will value. Public talks are necessary; private talks are necessary; written papers are necessary. But I am inclined to believe that, in the long-haul, books which leave out what&#8217;s not essential are more important than books which tell you everything because you don&#8217;t want to know everything. I don&#8217;t want to know that much about penguins is the usual reply. You just want to know the essence.</p>
<p><em>Question:</em> You mentioned the problem of the Nobel Prize and the subsequent notoriety of what was done to some of the careers. Isn&#8217;t that kind of a much more broad problem of fame? What can one do?</p>
<p><em>Hamming:</em> Some things you could do are the following. Somewhere around every seven years make a significant, if not complete, shift in your field. Thus, I shifted from numerical analysis, to hardware, to software, and so on, periodically, because you tend to use up your ideas. When you go to a new field, you have to start over as a baby. You are no longer the big mukity muk and you can start back there and you can start planting those acorns which will become the giant oaks. Shannon, I believe, ruined himself. In fact when he left Bell Labs, I said, &#8220;That&#8217;s the end of Shannon&#8217;s scientific career.&#8221; I received a lot of flak from my friends who said that Shannon was just as smart as ever. I said, &#8220;Yes, he&#8217;ll be just as smart, but that&#8217;s the end of his scientific career,&#8221; and I truly believe it was.</p>
<p>You have to change. You get tired after a while; you use up your originality in one field. You need to get something nearby. I&#8217;m not saying that you shift from music to theoretical physics to English literature; I mean within your field you should shift areas so that you don&#8217;t go stale. You couldn&#8217;t get away with forcing a change every seven years, but if you could, I would require a condition for doing research, being that you <em>will</em> change your field of research every seven years with a reasonable definition of what it means, or at the end of 10 years, management has the right to compel you to change. I would insist on a change because I&#8217;m serious. What happens to the old fellows is that they get a technique going; they keep on using it. They were marching in that direction which was right then, but the world changes. There&#8217;s the new direction; but the old fellows are still marching in their former direction.</p>
<p>You need to get into a new field to get new viewpoints, and <em>before</em> you use up all the old ones. You can do something about this, but it takes effort and energy. It takes courage to say, &#8220;Yes, I will give up my great reputation.&#8221; For example, when error correcting codes were well launched, having these theories, I said, &#8220;Hamming, you are going to quit reading papers in the field; you are going to ignore it completely; you are going to try and do something else other than coast on that.&#8221; I deliberately refused to go on in that field. I wouldn&#8217;t even read papers to try to force myself to have a chance to do something else. I managed myself, which is what I&#8217;m preaching in this whole talk. Knowing many of my own faults, I manage myself. I have a lot of faults, so I&#8217;ve got a lot of problems, i.e. a lot of possibilities of management.</p>
<p><em>Question:</em> Would you compare research and management?</p>
<p><em>Hamming:</em> If you want to be a great researcher, you won&#8217;t make it being president of the company. If you want to be president of the company, that&#8217;s another thing. I&#8217;m not against being president of the company. I just don&#8217;t want to be. I think Ian Ross does a good job as President of Bell Labs. I&#8217;m not against it; but you have to be clear on what you want. Furthermore, when you&#8217;re young, you may have picked wanting to be a great scientist, but as you live longer, you may change your mind. For instance, I went to my boss, Bode, one day and said, &#8220;Why did you ever become department head? Why didn&#8217;t you just be a good scientist?&#8221; He said, &#8220;Hamming, I had a vision of what mathematics should be in Bell Laboratories. And I saw if that vision was going to be realized, <em>I</em> had to make it happen; <em>I</em> had to be department head.&#8221; When your vision of what you want to do is what you can do single-handedly, then you should pursue it. The day your vision, what you think needs to be done, is bigger than what you can do single-handedly, then you have to move toward management. And the bigger the vision is, the farther in management you have to go. If you have a vision of what the whole laboratory should be, or the whole Bell System, you have to get there to make it happen. You can&#8217;t make it happen from the bottom very easily. It depends upon what goals and what desires you have. And as they change in life, you have to be prepared to change. I chose to avoid management because I preferred to do what I could do single-handedly. But that&#8217;s the choice that I made, and it is biased. Each person is entitled to their choice. Keep an open mind. But when you do choose a path, for heaven&#8217;s sake be aware of what you have done and the choice you have made. Don&#8217;t try to do both sides.</p>
<p><em>Question:</em> How important is one&#8217;s own expectation or how important is it to be in a group or surrounded by people who expect great work from you?</p>
<p><em>Hamming:</em> At Bell Labs everyone expected good work from me &#8211; it was a big help. Everybody expects you to do a good job, so you do, if you&#8217;ve got pride. I think it&#8217;s very valuable to have first-class people around. I sought out the best people. The moment that physics table lost the best people, I left. The moment I saw that the same was true of the chemistry table, I left. I tried to go with people who had great ability so I could learn from them and who would expect great results out of me. By deliberately managing myself, I think I did much better than laissez faire.</p>
<p><em>Question:</em> You, at the outset of your talk, minimized or played down luck; but you seemed also to gloss over the circumstances that got you to Los Alamos, that got you to Chicago, that got you to Bell Laboratories.</p>
<p><em>Hamming:</em> There was some luck. On the other hand I don&#8217;t know the alternate branches. Until you can say that the other branches would not have been equally or more successful, I can&#8217;t say. Is it luck the particular thing you do? For example, when I met Feynman at Los Alamos, I knew he was going to get a Nobel Prize. I didn&#8217;t know what for. But I knew darn well he was going to do great work. No matter what directions came up in the future, this man would do great work. And sure enough, he did do great work. It isn&#8217;t that you only do a little great work at this circumstance and that was luck, there are many opportunities sooner or later. There are a whole pail full of opportunities, of which, if you&#8217;re in this situation, you seize one and you&#8217;re great over there instead of over here. There is an element of luck, yes and no. Luck favors a prepared mind; luck favors a prepared person. It is not guaranteed; I don&#8217;t guarantee success as being absolutely certain. I&#8217;d say luck changes the odds, but there is some definite control on the part of the individual.</p>
<p>Go forth, then, and do great work!</p>
<p>(End of the General Research Colloquium Talk.)</p>
<p><strong>BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH OF RICHARD HAMMING</strong></p>
<p>Richard W. Hamming was born February 11, 1915, in Chicago, Illinois. His formal education was marked by the following degrees (all in mathematics): B.S. 1937, University of Chicago; M.A. 1939, University of Nebraska; and Ph.D. 1942, University of Illinois. His early experience was obtained at Los Alamos 1945-1946, i.e. at the close of World War II, where he managed the computers used in building the first atomic bomb. From there he went directly to Bell Laboratories where he spent thirty years in various aspects of computing, numerical analysis, and management of computing, i.e. 1946-1976. On July 23, 1976 he `moved his office&#8217; to the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California where he taught, supervised research, and wrote books.</p>
<p>While at Bell Laboratories, he took time to teach in Universities, sometimes locally and sometimes on a full sabbatical leave; these activities included visiting professorships at New York University, Princeton University (Statistics), City College of New York, Stanford University, 1960-61, Stevens Institute of Technology (Mathematics), and the University of California, Irvine, 1970-71.</p>
<p>Richard Hamming has received a number of awards which include: Fellow, IEEE, 1968; the ACM Turing Prize, 1968; the IEEE Emanuel R. Piore Award, 1979; Member, National Academy of Engineering, 1980; and the Harold Pender Award, U. Penn., 1981. In 1987 a major IEEE award was named after him, namely the Richard W. Hamming Medal, &#8220;For exceptional contributions to information sciences and systems&#8221;; fittingly, he was also the first recipient of this award, 1988. In 1996 in Munich he received the prestigious $130,000 Eduard Rhein Award for Achievement in Technology for his work on error correcting codes. He was both a Founder and Past President of ACM, and a Vice Pres. of the AAAS Mathematics Section.</p>
<p>He is probably best known for his pioneering work on error-correcting codes, his work on integrating differential equations, and the spectral window which bears his name. His extensive writing has included a number of important, pioneering, and highly regarded books. These are:</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<ul>
<li><em>Numerical Methods for Scientists and Engineers</em>, McGraw-Hill, 1962; Second edition 1973; Reprinted by Dover 1985; Translated into Russian.</li>
<li><em>Calculus and the Computer Revolution</em>, Houghton-Mifflin, 1968.</li>
<li><em>Introduction to Applied Numerical Analysis</em>, McGraw-Hill, 1971.</li>
<li><em>Computers and Society</em>, McGraw-Hill, 1972.</li>
<li><em>Digital Filters</em>, Prentice-Hall, 1977; Second edition 1983; Third edition 1989; translated into several European languages.</li>
<li><em>Coding and Information Theory</em>, Prentice-Hall, 1980; Second edition 1986.</li>
<li><em>Methods of Mathematics Applied to Calculus, Probability and Statistics</em>, Prentice-Hall, 1985.</li>
<li><em>The Art of Probability for Scientists and Engineers</em>, Addison-Wesley, 1991.</li>
<li><em>The Art of Doing Science and Engineering: Learning to Learn</em>, Gordon and Breach, 1997.</li>
</ul>
<p>He continued a very active life as Adjunct Professor, teaching and writing in the Mathematics and Computer Science Departments at the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California for another twenty-one years before he retired to become Professor Emeritus in 1997. He was still teaching a course in the fall of 1997. He passed away unexpectedly on January 7, 1998.</p>
<p><strong>ACKNOWLEDGEMENT</strong></p>
<p>I would like to acknowledge the professional efforts of Donna Paradise of the Word Processing Center who did the initial transcription of the talk from the tape recording. She made my job of editing much easier. The errors of sentence parsing and punctuation are mine and mine alone. Finally I would like to express my sincere appreciation to Richard Hamming and Alan Chynoweth for all of their help in bringing this transcription to its present readable state.</p>
<p>J. F. Kaiser</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://www.appapillai.com/blog/2011/08/27/you-and-your-research/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Freeman Dyson today</title>
		<link>http://www.appapillai.com/blog/2009/03/29/freeman-dyson-today/</link>
		<comments>http://www.appapillai.com/blog/2009/03/29/freeman-dyson-today/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 30 Mar 2009 03:10:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>mano</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Physics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dyson]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.appapillai.com/blog/?p=827</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[March 29, 2009 The Civil Heretic By NICHOLAS DAWIDOFF FOR MORE THAN HALF A CENTURY the eminent physicist Freeman Dyson has quietly resided in Prince ton, N.J., on the wooded former farmland that is home to his employer, the Institute for Advanced Study, this country’s most rarefied community of scholars. Lately, however, since coming “out of [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="timestamp">March 29, 2009</div>
<h3>The Civil Heretic</h3>
<div class="byline">By NICHOLAS DAWIDOFF</div>
<div id="articleBody">
<p><span class="bold">FOR MORE THAN HALF A CENTURY</span> the eminent physicist Freeman Dyson has quietly resided in Prince ton, N.J., on the wooded former farmland that is home to his employer, the Institute for Advanced Study, this country’s most rarefied community of scholars. Lately, however, since coming “out of the closet as far as <a title="Recent and archival news about global warming." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/science/topics/globalwarming/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier">global warming</a> is concerned,” as Dyson sometimes puts it, there has been noise all around him. Chat rooms, Web threads, editors’ letter boxes and Dyson’s own e-mail queue resonate with a thermal current of invective in which Dyson has discovered himself variously described as “a pompous twit,” “a blowhard,” “a cesspool of misinformation,” “an old coot riding into the sunset” and, perhaps inevitably, “a mad scientist.” Dyson had proposed that whatever inflammations the climate was experiencing might be a good thing because carbon dioxide helps plants of all kinds grow. Then he added the caveat that if CO2 levels soared too high, they could be soothed by the mass cultivation of specially bred “carbon-eating trees,” whereupon the <a title="More articles about the University of Chicago." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/u/university_of_chicago/index.html?inline=nyt-org">University of Chicago</a> law professor Eric Posner looked through the thick grove of honorary degrees Dyson has been awarded — there are 21 from universities like Georgetown, Princeton and Oxford — and suggested that “perhaps trees can also be designed so that they can give directions to lost hikers.” Dyson’s son, George, a technology historian, says his father’s views have cooled friendships, while many others have concluded that time has cost Dyson something else. There is the suspicion that, at age 85, a great scientist of the 20th century is no longer just far out, he is far gone — out of his beautiful mind.</p>
<p>But in the considered opinion of the neurologist <a title="More articles about Oliver Sacks." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/s/oliver_sacks/index.html?inline=nyt-per">Oliver Sacks</a>, Dyson’s friend and fellow English expatriate, this is far from the case. “His mind is still so open and flexible,” Sacks says. Which makes Dyson something far more formidable than just the latest peevish right-wing climate-change denier. Dyson is a scientist whose intelligence is revered by other scientists — William Press, former deputy director of the <a title="More articles about Los Alamos National Laboratory" href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/l/los_alamos_national_laboratory/index.html?inline=nyt-org">Los Alamos National Laboratory</a> and now a professor of computer science at the <a title="More articles about the University of Texas" href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/u/university_of_texas/index.html?inline=nyt-org">University of Texas</a>, calls him “infinitely smart.” Dyson — a mathematics prodigy who came to this country at 23 and right away contributed seminal work to physics by unifying quantum and electrodynamic theory — not only did path-breaking science of his own; he also witnessed the development of modern physics, thinking alongside most of the luminous figures of the age, including Einstein, Richard Feynman, <a title="More articles about Niels Bohr." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/b/niels_bohr/index.html?inline=nyt-per">Niels Bohr</a>, Enrico Fermi, Hans Bethe, <a title="More articles about Edward Teller." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/t/edward_teller/index.html?inline=nyt-per">Edward Teller</a>, J. Robert Oppenheimer and Edward Witten, the “high priest of string theory” whose office at the institute is just across the hall from Dyson’s. Yet instead of hewing to that fundamental field, Dyson chose to pursue broader and more unusual pursuits than most physicists — and has lived a more original life.</p>
<p>Among Dyson’s gifts is interpretive clarity, a penetrating ability to grasp the method and significance of what many kinds of scientists do. His thoughts about how science works appear in a series of lucid, elegant books for nonspecialists that have made him a trusted arbiter of ideas ranging far beyond physics. Dyson has written more than a dozen books, including “Origins of Life” (1999), which synthesizes recent discoveries by biologists and geologists into an evaluation of the double-origin hypothesis, the possibility that life began twice; “Disturbing the Universe” (1979) tries among other things to reconcile science and humanity. “Weapons and Hope” (1984) is his meditation on the meaning and danger of nuclear weapons that won a National Book Critics Circle Award. Dyson’s books display such masterly control of complex matters that smart young people read him and want to be scientists; older citizens finish his books and feel smart.</p>
<p>Yet even while probing and sifting, Dyson is always whimsically gazing into the beyond. As a boy he sketched plans for English rocket ships that could explore the stars, and then, in midlife, he helped design an American spacecraft to be powered by exploding atomic bombs — a secret <a title="More articles about the U.S. Air Force." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/a/us_air_force/index.html?inline=nyt-org">Air Force</a> project known as Orion. Dyson remains an armchair astronaut who speculates with glee about the coming of cheap space travel, when families can leave an overcrowded earth to homestead on asteroids and comets, swooping around the universe via solar sail craft. Dyson is convinced that our current “age of computers” will soon give way to “the age of domesticated biotechnology.” Bio-tech, he writes in his book, “Infinite in All Directions” (1988), “offers us the chance to imitate nature’s speed and flexibility,” and he imagines the furniture and art that people will “grow” for themselves, the pet dinosaurs they will “grow” for their children, along with an idiosyncratic menagerie of genetically engineered cousins of the carbon-eating tree: termites to consume derelict automobiles, a potato capable of flourishing on the dry red surfaces of <a title="More articles about Mars (Planet)." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/science/topics/mars_planet/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier">Mars</a>, a collision-avoiding car.</p>
<p>These ideas attract derision similar to Dyson’s essays on climate change, but he is an undeterred octogenarian futurist. “I don’t think of myself predicting things,” he says. “I’m expressing possibilities. Things that could happen. To a large extent it’s a question of how badly people want them to. The purpose of thinking about the future is not to predict it but to raise people’s hopes.” Formed in a heretical and broad-thinking tradition of British public intellectuals, Dyson left behind a brooding England still stricken by two bloody world wars to become an optimistic American immigrant with tremendous faith in the creative imagination’s ability to invent technologies that would overcome any predicament. And according to the physicist and former Caltech president Marvin Goldberger, Dyson is himself the living embodiment of that kind of ingenuity. “You point Freeman at a problem and he’ll solve it,” Goldberger says. “He’s extraordinarily powerful.” Dyson seems to see the world as an interdisciplinary set of problems out there for him to evaluate. Climate change is the big scientific issue of our time, so naturally he finds it irresistible. But to Dyson this is really only one more charged conundrum attracting his interest just as nuclear weapons and rural poverty have. That is to say, he is a great problem-solver who is not convinced that climate change is a great problem.</p>
<p>Dyson is well aware that “most consider me wrong about global warming.” That educated Americans tend to agree with the conclusion about global warming reached earlier this month at the International Scientific Conference on Climate Change in Copenhagen (“inaction is inexcusable”) only increases Dyson’s resistance. Dyson may be an Obama-loving, Bush-loathing liberal who has spent his life opposing American wars and fighting for the protection of natural resources, but he brooks no ideology and has a withering aversion to scientific consensus. The Nobel physics laureate Steven Weinberg admires Dyson’s physics — he says he thinks the Nobel committee fleeced him by not awarding his work on quantum electrodynamics with the prize — but Weinberg parts ways with his sensibility: “I have the sense that when consensus is forming like ice hardening on a lake, Dyson will do his best to chip at the ice.”</p>
<p>Dyson says he doesn’t want his legacy to be defined by climate change, but his dissension from the orthodoxy of global warming is significant because of his stature and his devotion to the integrity of science. Dyson has said he believes that the truths of science are so profoundly concealed that the only thing we can really be sure of is that much of what we expect to happen won’t come to pass. In “Infinite in All Directions,” he writes that nature’s laws “make the universe as interesting as possible.” This also happens to be a fine description of Dyson’s own relationship to science. In the words of Avishai Margalit, a philosopher at the Institute for Advanced Study, “He’s a consistent reminder of another possibility.” When Dyson joins the public conversation about climate change by expressing concern about the “enormous gaps in our knowledge, the sparseness of our observations and the superficiality of our theories,” these reservations come from a place of experience. Whatever else he is, Dyson is the good scientist; he asks the hard questions. He could also be a lonely prophet. Or, as he acknowledges, he could be dead wrong.</p>
<p><span class="bold">IT WAS FOUR YEARS AGO</span> that Dyson began publicly stating his doubts about climate change. Speaking at the Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future at <a title="More articles about Boston University" href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/b/boston_university/index.html?inline=nyt-org">Boston University</a>, Dyson announced that “all the fuss about global warming is grossly exaggerated.” Since then he has only heated up his misgivings, declaring in a 2007 interview with Salon.com that “the fact that the climate is getting warmer doesn’t scare me at all” and writing in an essay for The New York Review of Books, the left-leaning publication that is to gravitas what the Beagle was to Darwin, that climate change has become an “obsession” — the primary article of faith for “a worldwide secular religion” known as environmentalism. Among those he considers true believers, Dyson has been particularly dismissive of <a title="More articles about Al Gore." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/g/al_gore/index.html?inline=nyt-per">Al Gore</a>, whom Dyson calls climate change’s “chief propagandist,” and <a title="More articles about James V. Hansen." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/h/james_v_hansen/index.html?inline=nyt-per">James Hansen</a>, the head of the <a title="More articles about the National Aeronautics and Space Administration." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/n/national_aeronautics_and_space_administration/index.html?inline=nyt-org">NASA</a> Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York and an adviser to Gore’s film, “An Inconvenient Truth.” Dyson accuses them of relying too heavily on computer-generated climate models that foresee a <span class="italic">Grand Guignol</span> of imminent world devastation as icecaps melt, oceans rise and storms and plagues sweep the earth, and he blames the pair’s “lousy science” for “distracting public attention” from “more serious and more immediate dangers to the planet.”</p>
<p>A particularly distressed member of that public was Dyson’s own wife, Imme, who, after seeing the film in a local theater with Dyson when it was released in 2006, looked at her husband out on the sidewalk and, with visions of drowning polar bears still in her eyes, reproached him: “Everything you told me is wrong!” she cried.</p>
<p>“The polar bears will be fine,” he assured her.</p>
<p>Not long ago Dyson sat in his institute office, a chamber so neat it reminds Dyson’s friend, the writer John McPhee, of a Japanese living room. On shelves beside Dyson were books about stellar evolution, viruses, thermodynamics and terrorism. “The climate-studies people who work with models always tend to overestimate their models,” Dyson was saying. “They come to believe models are real and forget they are only models.” Dyson speaks in calm, clear tones that carry simultaneous evidence of his English childhood, the move to the United States after completing his university studies at Cambridge and more than 50 years of marriage to the German-born Imme, but his opinions can be barbed, especially when a conversation turns to climate change. Climate models, he says, take into account atmospheric motion and water levels but have no feeling for the chemistry and biology of sky, soil and trees. “The biologists have essentially been pushed aside,” he continues. “Al Gore’s just an opportunist. The person who is really responsible for this overestimate of global warming is Jim Hansen. He consistently exaggerates all the dangers.”</p>
<p>Dyson agrees with the prevailing view that there are rapidly rising carbon-dioxide levels in the atmosphere caused by human activity. To the planet, he suggests, the rising carbon may well be a MacGuffin, a striking yet ultimately benign occurrence in what Dyson says is still “a relatively cool period in the earth’s history.” The warming, he says, is not global but local, “making cold places warmer rather than making hot places hotter.” Far from expecting any drastic harmful consequences from these increased temperatures, he says the carbon may well be salubrious — a sign that “the climate is actually improving rather than getting worse,” because carbon acts as an ideal fertilizer promoting forest growth and crop yields. “Most of the evolution of life occurred on a planet substantially warmer than it is now,” he contends, “and substantially richer in carbon dioxide.” Dyson calls ocean acidification, which many scientists say is destroying the saltwater food chain, a genuine but probably exaggerated problem. Sea levels, he says, are rising steadily, but why this is and what dangers it might portend “cannot be predicted until we know much more about its causes.”</p>
<p>For Hansen, the dark agent of the looming environmental apocalypse is carbon dioxide contained in coal smoke. Coal, he has written, “is the single greatest threat to civilization and all life on our planet.” Hansen has referred to railroad cars transporting coal as “death trains.” Dyson, on the other hand, told me in conversations and e-mail messages that “Jim Hansen’s crusade against coal overstates the harm carbon dioxide can do.” Dyson well remembers the lethal black London coal fog of his youth when, after a day of visiting the city, he would return to his hometown of Winchester with his white shirt collar turned black. Coal, Dyson says, contains “real pollutants” like soot, sulphur and nitrogen oxides, “really nasty stuff that makes people sick and looks ugly.” These are “rightly considered a moral evil,” he says, but they “can be reduced to low levels by scrubbers at an affordable cost.” He says Hansen “exploits” the toxic elements of burning coal as a way of condemning the carbon dioxide it releases, “which cannot be reduced at an affordable cost, but does not do any substantial harm.”</p>
<p>Science is not a matter of opinion; it is a question of data. Climate change is an issue for which Dyson is asking for more evidence, and leading climate scientists are replying by saying if we wait for sufficient proof to satisfy you, it may be too late. That is the position of a more moderate expert on climate change, William Chameides, dean of the Nicholas School of the Environment and <a title="More articles about Earth (Planet)." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/science/topics/earth_planet/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier">Earth</a> Sciences at <a title="More articles about Duke University." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/d/duke_university/index.html?inline=nyt-org">Duke University</a>, who says, “I don’t think it’s time to panic,” but contends that, because of global warming, “more sea-level rise is inevitable and will displace millions; melting high-altitude glaciers will threaten the food supplies for perhaps a billion or more; and ocean acidification could undermine the food supply of another billion or so.” Dyson strongly disagrees with each of these points, and there follows, as you move back and forth between the two positions, claims and counterclaims, a dense thicket of mitigating scientific indicators that all have the timbre of truth and the ring of potential plausibility. One of Dyson’s more significant surmises is that a warming climate could be forestalling a new ice age. Is he wrong? No one can say for sure. Beyond the specific points of factual dispute, Dyson has said that it all boils down to “a deeper disagreement about values” between those who think “nature knows best” and that “any gross human disruption of the natural environment is evil,” and “humanists,” like himself, who contend that protecting the existing biosphere is not as important as fighting more repugnant evils like war, poverty and unemployment.</p>
<p>Embedded in all of Dyson’s strong opinions about public policy is a dual spirit of social activism and uneasiness about class dating all the way back to Winchester, where he was raised in the 1920s and ’30s by his father, George Dyson, the son of a Yorkshire blacksmith. George was the music instructor at Winchester College, an old and prestigious secondary school, and a composer. Dyson’s mother, Mildred Atkey, came from a more prosperous Wimbledon family that had its own tennis court. Together they raised Dyson and his sister, Alice, in what Dyson calls a “watered-down Church of England Christianity” that regarded religion as a guide to living rather than any system of belief. The emphasis on tolerance, charity and community — and the free time afforded by the luxury of four servants — led Mildred to organize a club for teenage girls and a birth-control clinic. These institutions meshed uneasily with her patrician Victorian sensibilities. The girls were never, Dyson says, “considered equals,” and Mildred told him with amusement about the young mother who walked in carrying a red-headed infant. “What a beautiful baby,” Mildred reported saying. “Does he take after his father?”</p>
<p>“Oh, I couldn’t tell you, Mum,” came the reply. “He kept his hat on.”</p>
<p>Winchester is a medieval town in which, Dyson writes, he felt that everyone was looking backward, mourning all the young men lost to one world war while silently anticipating his own generation’s impending demise. He renounced the nostalgia, the servants, the hard-line social castes. But what he liked about growing up in England was the landscape. The country’s successful alteration of wilderness and swamp had created a completely new green ecology, allowing plants, animals and humans to thrive in “a community of species.” Dyson has always been strongly opposed to the idea that there is any such thing as an optimal ecosystem — “life is always changing” — and he abhors the notion that men and women are something apart from nature, that “we must apologize for being human.” Humans, he says, have a duty to restructure nature for their survival.</p>
<p>All this may explain why the same man could write “we live on a shrinking and vulnerable planet which our lack of foresight is rapidly turning into a slum” and yet gently chide the sort of Americans who march against coal in Washington. Dyson has great affection for coal and for one big reason: It is so inexpensive that most of the world can afford it. “There’s a lot of truth to the statement Greens are people who never had to worry about their grocery bills,” he says. (“Many of these people are my friends,” he will also tell you.) To Dyson, “the move of the populations of China and India from poverty to middle-class prosperity should be the great historic achievement of the century. Without coal it cannot happen.” That said, Dyson sees coal as the interim kindling of progress. In “roughly 50 years,” he predicts, <a title="More articles about solar power." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/science/topics/solar_energy/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier">solar energy</a> will become cheap and abundant, and “there are many good reasons for preferring it to coal.”</p>
<p><span class="bold">THE WORDS COLLEAGUES COMMONLY</span> use to describe Dyson include “unassuming” and “modest,” and he seems the very embodiment of Newton’s belief that a man should strive for simplicity and avoid confusion in life. Dyson has been in residence at the institute since 1953, a time when <a title="More articles about Albert Einstein." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/e/albert_einstein/index.html?inline=nyt-per">Albert Einstein</a> shared his habit of walking to work there, which Dyson still does seven days a week, to write on a computer and solve any problems that come across his desk with paper and pencil. (In his prime, legend held that he never used the eraser.) He and Imme have spent 51 happy years together in the same house, a white clapboard just over the garden fence from the stucco affair once inhabited by their former neighbors, the Oppenheimers. On some Sundays the Dysons pile into a car still decorated with an Obama bumper sticker and drive to running races, at which Dyson can be found at the finish line loudly cheering for the 72-year-old Imme, a master’s marathon champion. On many other weekends, they visit some of their 16 grandchildren. During the holiday season the Dysons routinely attend five parties a week, cocktail-soiree sprints at which guests tend to find him open-minded and shy: when friends’ wives give him a hug, he blushes. One of Dyson’s daughters, the Internet vizier <a title="More articles about Esther Dyson." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/d/esther_dyson/index.html?inline=nyt-per">Esther Dyson</a>, says her father raised her without a television so she would read more, and has always been “just as interested in talking to” the latest graduate student to make the pilgrimage to Princeton “as he is the famous person at the next table.” Oliver Sacks says that Dyson has “a genius for friendship.”</p>
<p>But the truth is that Dyson is an elusive particle. To Edward Witten it is clear that Dyson has little use for string theory, the cutting-edge “theory of everything” that links quantum mechanics and relativity in an effort to describe no less than the nature of all things. Even so, Witten admits that there is a fever-dream quality to his conversations with Dyson: “I don’t always know what he disagrees with entirely. His attitudes are complicated. There are many layers.” Other people can be similarly intrigued and baffled. When I began spending time with Dyson and asked who his close friends are, the only name he mentioned was John McPhee’s, which surprised McPhee since he said he doesn’t often speak with Dyson even though McPhee teaches nearby at <a title="More articles about Princeton University." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/p/princeton_university/index.html?inline=nyt-org">Princeton University</a>. All six of Dyson’s children describe him as a loving, intensely devoted father and yet also suggest that this is a parent with, in the words of his son, George, core parts of him that have always seemed “remote.” William Press said he finds Dyson to be both a “deep” and “magnificently laudable person” and also mysterious and inscrutable, a man with contrarian opinions that Press suspects may be motivated by “a darker side he’s determined the world isn’t going to see.” When I asked Sacks what he thought about all this, he said that “a favorite word of Freeman’s about doing science and being creative is the word ‘subversive.’ He feels it’s rather important not only to be not orthodox, but to be subversive, and he’s done that all his life.”</p>
<p>Dyson says it’s only principle that leads him to question global warming: “According to the global-warming people, I say what I say because I’m paid by the oil industry. Of course I’m not, but that’s part of their rhetoric. If you doubt it, you’re a bad person, a tool of the oil or coal industry.” Global warming, he added, “has become a party line.”</p>
<p>What may trouble Dyson most about climate change are the experts. Experts are, he thinks, too often crippled by the conventional wisdom they create, leading to the belief that “they know it all.” The men he most admires tend to be what he calls “amateurs,” inventive spirits of uncredentialed brilliance like Bernhard Schmidt, an eccentric one-armed alcoholic telescope-lens designer; Milton Humason, a janitor at Mount Wilson Observatory in California whose native scientific aptitude was such that he was promoted to staff astronomer; and especially Darwin, who, Dyson says, “was really an amateur and beat the professionals at their own game.” It’s a point of pride with Dyson that in 1951 he became a member of the physics faculty at <a title="More articles about Cornell University." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/c/cornell_university/index.html?inline=nyt-org">Cornell</a> and then, two years later, moved on to the Institute for Advanced Study, where he became an influential man, a pragmatist providing solutions to the military and Congress, and also the 2000 winner of the $1 million Templeton Prize for broadening the understanding of science and religion, an award previously given to <a title="More articles about Mother Teresa." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/t/teresa_mother/index.html?inline=nyt-per">Mother Teresa</a> and <a title="More articles about Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/s/aleksandr_solzhenitsyn/index.html?inline=nyt-per">Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn</a> — all without ever earning a Ph.D. Dyson may, in fact, be the ultimate outsider-insider, “the world’s most civil heretic,” as the classical composer Paul Moravec, the artistic consultant at the institute, says of him.</p>
<p>Climate-change specialists often speak of global warming as a matter of moral conscience. Dyson says he thinks they sound presumptuous. As he warned that day four years ago at Boston University, the history of science is filled with those “who make confident predictions about the future and end up believing their predictions,” and he cites examples of things people anticipated to the point of terrified certainty that never actually occurred, ranging from hellfire, to <a title="More articles about Adolf Hitler." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/h/adolf_hitler/index.html?inline=nyt-per">Hitler</a>’s atomic bomb, to the Y2K millennium bug. “It’s always possible Hansen could turn out to be right,” he says of the climate scientist. “If what he says were obviously wrong, he wouldn’t have achieved what he has. But Hansen has turned his science into ideology. He’s a very persuasive fellow and has the air of knowing everything. He has all the credentials. I have none. I don’t have a Ph.D. He’s published hundreds of papers on climate. I haven’t. By the public standard he’s qualified to talk and I’m not. But I do because I think I’m right. I think I have a broad view of the subject, which Hansen does not. I think it’s true my career doesn’t depend on it, whereas his does. I never claim to be an expert on climate. I think it’s more a matter of judgement than knowledge.”</p>
<p>Reached by telephone, Hansen sounds annoyed as he says, “There are bigger fish to fry than Freeman Dyson,” who “doesn’t know what he’s talking about.” In an e-mail message, he adds that his own concern about global warming is not based only on models, and that while he respects the “open-mindedness” of Dyson, “if he is going to wander into something with major consequences for humanity and other life on the planet, then he should first do his homework — which he obviously has not done on global warming.”</p>
<p>When Dyson hears about this, he looks, if possible, like a person taking the longer view. He is a short, sinewy man with strawlike filaments of excitable gray hair that make him resemble an upside-down broom. Every day he dresses with the same frowzy Oxbridge formality in L. L. Bean khaki trousers (his daughter Mia is a minister in Maine), a tweed sport coat, a necktie (most often one made for him, he says, by another daughter, Emily, many years ago “in the age of primary colors”) and wool sweater-vests. On cold days he wears a second vest, one right over the other, and the effect is like a window with two sets of curtains. His smile is the real window, a delighted beam that appears to float free from his face, strangely dynamic with its electric ears and quantum nose, and his laugh is so hearty it shakes him. The smile and laughter have the effect of softening Dyson’s formality, transforming him into a sage and friendly elf, and also reminding those he talks with that he has spent a lifetime immersed in efforts to find what he considers humane solutions to dire problems, whose controversial gloss never seems to agitate him. His eyes are murky gray, and whatever he’s thinking beyond what he says, the eyes never betray.</p>
<p><span class="bold">A FORMATIVE MOMENT</span> in Dyson’s life that pushed him in an apostatical direction happened in 1932, when, at age 8, he was sent off to boarding school at Twyford. By then he was a prodigy “already obsessed” with mathematics. (His older sister Alice, a retired social worker still living in Winchester, remembers how her brother “used to lie on the nursery floor working out how many atoms there were in the sun. He was perhaps 4.”) At Twyford — like <a title="More articles about George Orwell." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/o/george_orwell/index.html?inline=nyt-per">George Orwell</a>, who was flogged, starved and humiliated by masters and bigger boys at St. Cyprian’s — Dyson says he felt brutalized by a whip-wielding headmaster who offered no science classes, favoring Latin, and by a clique of athletes who liked to rub sandpaper on the faces of the smaller children. “In those days it was unthinkable that parents would come to see what was going on,” Dyson says. “My parents lived only three miles away. They never came to visit. It wasn’t done.” Dyson took comfort in climbing tall trees, reading “The Wonderful Wizard of Oz,” which gave him a first sense of America as a more “exciting place where all sorts of weird things could happen,” and <a title="More articles about Jules Verne." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/v/jules_verne/index.html?inline=nyt-per">Jules Verne</a>’s comic science-fiction descriptions of more “crazy Americans” bound for the <a title="More articles about the Moon." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/science/topics/moon/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier">moon</a>. His primary consolation, however, was the science society he founded with a few friends. Dyson would later reflect that from then on he saw science as “a territory of freedom and friendship in the midst of tyranny and hatred.”</p>
<p>Four years later he entered Winchester College, well known for academic rigor, and he thrived. On his own in the school library, he read mathematical works in French and German and, at age 13, taught himself calculus from an Encyclopedia Britannica entry. “I remember thinking, Is that it?” he says. “People had been telling me how hard it was.” Another day in the library he discovered “Daedalus, or Science and the Future,” by the biologist J. B. S. Haldane, who said that “the thing that has not been is the thing that shall be; that no beliefs, no values, no institutions are safe,” an appealing outlook to Dyson, who had found his muse. “Haldane was even more of a heretic than I am,” he says. “He really loved to make people angry.” It wasn’t all science. On trips into London he spent entire days in bookstores where William Blake “got hold of me. What I really liked was he was a really rebellious spirit who always said the opposite of what everybody else believed.”</p>
<p>That defiant sensibility hardened further when the second war with Germany began. Dyson says he can “remember so vividly lying in bed at age 15, absolutely enjoying hearing the bombs go off with a wonderful crunching noise. I said, ‘That’s the sound of the British Empire crumbling.’ I had a sense that the British Empire was evil. The fact that I might get hit didn’t register at all. I think that’s a natural state of mind for a 15-year-old. I somehow got over it.” At Cambridge, Dyson attended all the advanced mathematics lectures and climbed roofs at night during blackouts. By the end of the school year in 1943, which Dyson celebrated by pushing his wheelchairbound classmate, Oscar Hahn, the 55 miles home to London in one 17-hour day, Dyson was fully formed as a person of strong, frequently rebellious beliefs, someone who would always go his own way.</p>
<p>During World War II, Dyson worked for the Royal Air Force at Bomber Command, calculating the most effective ways to deploy pilots, some of whom he knew would die. Dyson says he was “sickened” and “depressed” that many more planes were going down than needed to because military leadership relied on misguided institutional mythologies rather than statistical studies. Even more upsetting, Dyson writes in “Weapons and Hope,” he became an expert on “how to murder most economically another hundred thousand people.” This work, Dyson told the writer Kenneth Brower, created an “emptiness of the soul.”</p>
<p>Then came two blinding flashes of light. Dyson’s reaction to Hiroshima and Nagasaki was complicated. Like many physicists, Dyson has always loved explosions, and, of course, uncovering the secrets of nature is the first motivation of science. When he was interviewed for the 1980 documentary “The Day After Trinity,” Dyson addressed the seduction: “I felt it myself, the glitter of nuclear weapons. It is irresistible if you come to them as a scientist. To feel it’s there in your hands. To release the energy that fuels the stars. To let it do your bidding. And to perform these miracles, to lift a million tons of rock into the sky, it is something that gives people an illusion of illimitable power, and it is in some ways responsible for all our troubles, I would say, this what you might call ‘technical arrogance’ that overcomes people when they see what they can do with their minds.”</p>
<p>Eventually, Dyson would be sure nuclear weapons were the worst evil. But in 1945, drawn to these irreducible components of life, Dyson left mathematics and took up physics. Still, he did not want to be another dusty Englishman toiling alone in a dim Cambridge laboratory. Since childhood, some part of him had always known that the “Americans held the future in their hands and that the smart thing for me to do would be to join them.” That the United States was now the country of Einstein and Oppenheimer was reason enough to go, but Dyson’s sister Alice says that “he escaped to America so he could make his own life,” removed from the shadow of his now famous musical father. “I know how he felt,” says Oliver Sacks, who came to New York not long after medical school. “I was the fifth Dr. Sacks in my family. I felt it was time to get out and find a place of my own.”</p>
<p>In 1947, Dyson enrolled as a doctoral candidate at Cornell, studying with Hans Bethe, who had the reputation of being the greatest problem-solver in physics. Alice Dyson says that once in Ithaca, her brother “became so much more human,” and Dyson does not disagree. “I really felt it was quite amazing how accepted I was,” he says. “In 1963, I’d only been a U.S. citizen for about five years, and I was testifying to the Senate, representing the Federation of American Scientists in favor of the nuclear-test-ban treaty.”</p>
<p>After sizing him up over a few meals, Bethe gave Dyson a problem and told him to come back in six months. “You just sit down and do it,” Dyson told me. “It’s probably the hardest work you’ll do in your life. Without having done that, you’ve never understood what science is all about.” This smaller problem was part of a much larger one inherited from Einstein, among others, involving the need for a theory to describe the behavior of atoms and electrons emitting and absorbing light. Put another way, it was the question of how to move physics forward, creating agreement among the disparate laws of atomic structure, radiation, solid-state physics, plasma physics, maser and laser technology, optical and microwave spectroscopy, electronics and chemistry. Many were working on achieving this broad rapport, including Julian Schwinger at<a title="More articles about Harvard University." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/h/harvard_university/index.html?inline=nyt-org">Harvard University</a>; a Japanese physicist named Shinichiro Tomonaga, whose calculations arrived in America from war-depleted Kyoto on cheap brown paper; and Feynman, also at Cornell, a man so brilliant he did complex calculations in his head. Initially, Bethe asked Dyson to make some difficult measurements involving electrons. But soon enough Dyson went further.</p>
<p>The breakthrough came on summer trips Dyson made in 1948, traveling around America by Greyhound bus and also, for four days, in a car with Feynman. Feynman was driving to Albuquerque, and Dyson joined him just for the pleasure of riding alongside “a unique person who had such an amazing combination of gifts.” The irrepressible Feynman and the “quiet and dignified English fellow,” as Feynman described Dyson, picked up gypsy hitchhikers; took shelter from an Oklahoma flood in the only available hotel they could find, a brothel, where Feynman pretended to sleep and heard Dyson relieve himself in their room sink rather than risk the common bathroom in the hall; spoke of Feynman’s realization that he had enjoyed military work on the Manhattan Project too much and therefore could do it no more; and talked about Feynman’s ideas in a way that made Dyson forever understand what the nature of true genius is. Dyson wanted to unify one big theory; Feynman was out to unify all of physics. Inspired by this and by a mesmerizing sermon on nonviolence that Dyson happened to hear a traveling divinity student deliver in Berkeley, Dyson sat aboard his final Greyhound of the summer, heading East. He had no pencil or paper. He was thinking very hard. On a bumpy stretch of highway, long after dark, somewhere out in the middle of Nebraska, Dyson says, “Suddenly the physics problem became clear.” What Feynman, Schwinger and Tomonaga were doing was stylistically different, but it was all “fundamentally the same.”</p>
<p>Dyson is always effacing when discussing his work — he has variously called himself a tinkerer, a clean-up man and a bridge builder who merely supplied the cantilevers linking other men’s ideas. Bethe thought more highly of him. “He is the best I have ever had or observed,” Bethe wrote in a letter to Oppenheimer, who invited Dyson to the institute for an initial fellowship. There, with Einstein indifferent to him and the chain-smoking Oppenheimer openly doubting Dyson’s physics, Dyson wrote his renowned paper “The Radiation Theories of Tomonaga, Schwinger and Feynman.” Oppenheimer sent Dyson a note: “Nolo contendere — R.O.” If you could do that in a year, who needed a Ph.D.? The institute was perfect for him. He could work all morning and, as he wrote to his parents, in the afternoons go for walks in the woods to see “strange new birds, insects and plants.” It was, Dyson says, the happiest sustained moment in his life. It was also the last great discovery he would make in physics.</p>
<p>Other physicists quietly express disappointment that Dyson didn’t do more to advance the field, that he wasted his promise. “He did some things in physics after the heroic work in 1949, but not as much as I would have expected for someone so off-the-scale smart,” one physicist says. From others there are behind-the-study-door speculations that perhaps Dyson lacked the necessary “killer instinct”; or that he was discouraged by Enrico Fermi, who told him that his further work on quantum electrodynamics was unpromising; or “that he never felt he could approach Feynman’s brilliance.” Dyson shakes his head. “I’ve always enjoyed what I was doing quite independently of whether it was important or not,” he says. “I think it’s almost true without exception if you want to win a <a title="More articles about Nobel Prizes." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/science/topics/nobel_prizes/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier">Nobel Prize</a>, you should have a long attention span, get ahold of some deep and important problem and stay with it for 10 years. That wasn’t my style.”</p>
<p><span class="bold">DYSON HAD ALWAYS</span> wanted “a big family.” In 1950, after knowing the brilliant mathematician Verena Huber for three weeks, Dyson proposed. They married, Esther and George were born, but the union didn’t last. “She was more interested in mathematics than in raising kids,” he says. By 1958, Dyson had married Imme — he has the brains, she has the legs, the Dysons like to joke — and they settled “in this snobbish little town,” as he calls Princeton. They had four more daughters. All six Dysons describe eventful child hoods with people like Feynman coming by for meals. Their father, meanwhile, was always preaching the virtues of boredom: “Being bored is the only time you are creative” was his thinking. George recalls groups of physicists closing doors and saying, “No children.” Through the keyhole George would hear words that gave him thermonuclear nightmares. All of them remember Dyson coming home, arms filled with bouquets of new appliances to make Imme’s life easier: an automatic ironing machine; a snowblower; one of the first microwave ovens in Princeton.</p>
<p>Beginning in the late ’50s, Dyson spent months in California, on the La Jolla campus of General Atomics, a peacetime Los Alamos, where scientists were seeking progressive uses for nuclear energy. After a challenge from Edward Teller to build a completely safe reactor, Dyson and Ted Taylor patented the Triga, a small isotope machine that is still used for medical diagnostics in hospitals. Then came the Orion rocket, designed so successions of atomic bombs would explode against the spaceship’s massive pusher plate, propelling astronauts toward the moon and beyond. “For me, Orion meant opening up the whole solar system to life,” he says. “It could have changed history.” Dyson says he “thought of Orion as the solution to a problem. With one trip we’d have got rid of 2,000 bombs.” But instead, he lent his support to the nuclear-test-ban treaty with the U.S.S.R., which killed Orion. “This was much more serious than Orion ever would be,” he said later. Dyson’s powers of concentration were so formidable in those years that George remembers sitting with his father and “he’d just disappear.”</p>
<p>One idea pulsing through his mind was a thought experiment that he published in the journal Science in 1959 that described massive energy-collecting shells that could encircle a star and capture solar energy. This was Dyson’s initial response to his insight that earthbound reserves of fossil fuels were limited. The structures are known as Dyson Spheres to science-fiction authors like Larry Niven and by the writers of an episode of “Star Trek” — the only engineers so far to succeed in building one.</p>
<p>This was an early indication of Dyson’s growing interest in what one day would be called climate studies. In 1976, Dyson began making regular trips to the Institute for Energy Analysis in Oak Ridge, Tenn., where the director, Alvin Weinberg, was in the business of investigating alternative sources of power. Charles David Keeling’s pioneering measurements at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, showed rapidly increasing carbon-dioxide levels in the atmosphere; and in Tennessee, Dyson joined a group of meteorologists and biologists trying to understand the effects of carbon on the Earth and air. He was now becoming a climate expert. Eventually Dyson published a paper titled “Can We Control the Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere?” His answer was yes, and he added that any emergency could be temporarily thwarted with a “carbon bank” of “fast-growing trees.” He calculated how many trees it would take to remove all carbon from the atmosphere. The number, he says, was a trillion, which was “in principle quite feasible.” Dyson says the paper is “what I’d like people to judge me by. I still think everything it says is true.”</p>
<p>Eventually he would embrace another idea: the notorious carbon-eating trees, which would be genetically engineered to absorb more carbon than normal trees. Of them, he admits: “I suppose it sounds like science fiction. Genetic engineering is politically unpopular in the moment.”</p>
<p>In the 1970s, Dyson participated in other climate studies conducted by Jason, a small government-financed group of the country’s finest scientists, whose members gather each summer near San Diego to work on (often) classified (usually) scientific dilemmas of (frequently) military interest to the government. Dyson has, as he admits, a restless nature, and by the time many scientists were thinking about climate, Dyson was on to other problems. Often on his mind were proposals submitted by the government to Jason. “Mainly we kill stupid projects,” he says.</p>
<p>Some scientists refuse military work on the grounds that involvement in killing is sin. Dyson was opposed to the wars in Vietnam and Iraq, but not to generals. He had seen in England how a military more enlightened by quantitative analysis could have better protected its men and saved the lives of civilians. “I always felt the worse the situation was, the more important it was to keep talking to the military,” he says. Over the years he says he pushed the rejection of the idea of dropping atomic bombs on North Vietnam and solved problems in adaptive optics for telescopes. Lately he has been “trying to help the intelligence people be aware of what the bad guys may be doing with biology.” Dyson thinks of himself as “fighting for peace,” and Joel Lebowitz, a Rutgers physicist who has known Dyson for 50 years, says Dyson lives up to that: “He works for Jason and he’s out there demonstrating against the Iraq war.”</p>
<p>At Jason, taking problems to Dyson is something of a parlor trick. A group of scientists will be sitting around the cafeteria, and one will idly wonder if there is an integer where, if you take its last digit and move it to the front, turning, say, 112 to 211, it’s possible to exactly double the value. Dyson will immediately say, “Oh, that’s not difficult,” allow two short beats to pass and then add, “but of course the smallest such number is 18 digits long.” When this happened one day at lunch, William Press remembers, “the table fell silent; nobody had the slightest idea how Freeman could have known such a fact or, even more terrifying, could have derived it in his head in about two seconds.” The meal then ended with men who tend to be described with words like “brilliant,” “Nobel” and “MacArthur” quietly retreating to their offices to work out what Dyson just knew.</p>
<p>These days, most of what consumes Dyson is his writing. In a recent article, he addressed the issue of reductionist thinking obliquely, as a question of perspective. Birds, he wrote, “fly high in the air and survey broad vistas.” Frogs like him “live in the mud below and see only the flowers that grow nearby.” Whether the topic is government work, string theory or climate change, Dyson seems opposed to science making enormous gestures. The physicist Douglas Eardley, who works with Dyson at Jason, says: “He’s always against the big monolithic projects, the Battlestar Galacticas. He prefers spunky little Mars rovers.” Dyson has been hostile to the Star Wars missile-defense system, the Space Station, the Hubble telescope and the superconducting super collider, which he says he opposed because “it’s just out of proportion.” Steven Weinberg, the Nobel physics laureate who often disagrees with Dyson on these matters, says: “Some things simply have to be done in a large way. They’re very expensive. That’s big science. Get over it.”</p>
<p>Around the Institute for Advanced Study, that intellectual Arcadia where the blackboards have signs on them that say Do Not Erase, Dyson is quietly admired for candidly expressing his doubts about string theory’s aspiration to represent all forces and matter in one coherent system. “I think Freeman wishes the string theorists well,” Avishai Margalit, the philosopher, says. “I don’t think he wishes them luck. He’s interested in diversity, and that’s his worldview. To me he is a towering figure although he is tiny — almost a saintly model of how to get old. The main thing he retains is playfulness. Einstein had it. Playfulness and curiosity. He also stands for this unique trait, which is wisdom. Brightness here is common. He is wise. He integrated, not in a theory, but in his life, all his dreams of things.”</p>
<p><span class="bold">IMME DYSON REPORTS</span> that her husband “recently stopped climbing trees.” Dyson himself says he’s resigned to never finishing “Anna Karenina.” Otherwise he still lives his days at mortality-ignoring cadence, aided by NoDoz, a habit he first acquired during his R.A.F. days. He travels widely, giving talks at churches and colleges, reminding people how dangerous nuclear weapons are. (“I think people got used to them and think if you leave them alone, they won’t do you any harm,” he says. “I always am scared. I think everybody ought to be.”) He has visited both the Galápagos Islands and the campus of Google and attended “Doctor Atomic,” the <a title="More articles about John Adams." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/a/john_adams/index.html?inline=nyt-per">John Adams</a> opera about Oppenheimer, which disappointed him. More fulfilling was the board meeting of a foundation promoting solar energy in China. Another winter day found him answering questions from physics majors at a Christian college in Oklahoma. (“Scientists should understand the human anguish of religious people,” he says.)</p>
<p>Lately Dyson has been lamenting that he and Imme “don’t see so much of each other. We’re always rushing around.” But one evening last month they sat down in a living room filled with Imme’s running trophies and photographs of their children to watch “An Inconvenient Truth” again. There was a print of Einstein above the television. And then there was Al Gore below him, telling of the late Roger Revelle, a Harvard scientist who first alerted the undergraduate Gore to how severe the climate’s problems would become. Gore warned of the melting snows of Kilimanjaro, the vanishing glaciers of Peru and “off the charts” carbon levels in the air. “The so-called skeptics” say this “seems perfectly O.K.,” Gore said, and Imme looked at her husband. She is even slighter than he is, a pretty wood sprite in running shoes. “How far do you allow the oceans to rise before you say, This is no good?” she asked Dyson.</p>
<p>“When I see clear evidence of harm,” he said.</p>
<p>“Then it’s too late,” she replied. “Shouldn’t we not add to what nature’s doing?”</p>
<p>“The costs of what Gore tells us to do would be extremely large,” Dyson said. “By restricting CO2 you make life more expensive and hurt the poor. I’m concerned about the Chinese.”</p>
<p>“They’re the biggest polluters,” Imme replied.</p>
<p>“They’re also changing their standard of living the most, going from poor to middle class. To me that’s very precious.”</p>
<p>The film continued with Gore predicting violent <a title="More articles about hurricanes." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/h/hurricanes_and_tropical_storms/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier">hurricanes</a>, typhoons and tornados. “How in God’s name could that happen here?” Gore said, talking about <a title="More articles about Hurricane Katrina." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/h/hurricane_katrina/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier">Hurricane Katrina</a>. “Nature’s been going crazy.”</p>
<p>“That is of course just nonsense,” Dyson said calmly. “With Katrina, all the damage was due to the fact that nobody had taken the trouble to build adequate dikes. To point to Katrina and make any clear connection to global warming is very misleading.”</p>
<p>Now came Arctic scenes, with Gore telling of disappearing ice, drunken trees and drowning polar bears. “Most of the time in history the Arctic has been free of ice,” Dyson said. “A year ago when we went to Greenland where warming is the strongest, the people loved it.”</p>
<p>“They were so proud,” Imme agreed. “They could grow their own cabbage.”</p>
<p>The film ended. “I think Gore does a brilliant job,” Dyson said. “For most people I’d think this would be quite effective. But I knew Roger Revelle. He was definitely a skeptic. He’s not alive to defend himself.”</p>
<p>“All my friends say how smart and farsighted Al Gore is,” she said.</p>
<p>“He certainly is a good preacher,” Dyson replied. “Forty years ago it was fashionable to worry about the coming ice age. Better to attack the real problems like the extinction of species and overfishing. There are so many practical measures we could take.”</p>
<p>“I’m still perfectly happy if you buy me a Prius!” Imme said.</p>
<p>“It’s toys for the rich,” her husband smiled, and then they were arguing about windmills.</p>
<div id="authorId">
<p>Nicholas Dawidoff, a contributing writer for the magazine, is the author of four books, most recently “The Crowd Sounds Happy.”</p></div>
</div>
<div id="footer"><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/ref/membercenter/help/copyright.html">Copyright 2009</a> <a href="http://www.nytco.com/">The New York Times Company</a></div>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://www.appapillai.com/blog/2009/03/29/freeman-dyson-today/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>David Li and the Gaussian Copula</title>
		<link>http://www.appapillai.com/blog/2009/03/29/david-li-and-the-gaussian-copula/</link>
		<comments>http://www.appapillai.com/blog/2009/03/29/david-li-and-the-gaussian-copula/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 30 Mar 2009 02:23:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>mano</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Physics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CDO]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Copula]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Li]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.appapillai.com/blog/?p=824</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Gaussian copula and credit derivatives Steven Hsu, Prof of Physicss, Univ of Oregon Monday, September 12, 2005 This WSJ article describes a mathematical innovation that helped create the now huge market for credit derivatives. Credit derivatives let banks, hedge funds and other investors trade the risk associated with credit defaults (i.e. bankruptcy of bond issuers). Just as [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3><a href="http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2005/09/gaussian-copula-and-credit-derivatives.html">Gaussian copula and credit derivatives</a></h3>
<div class="post hentry">
<p>Steven Hsu, Prof of Physicss, Univ of Oregon</p>
<p>Monday, September 12, 2005</p>
<div class="post-body entry-content">This <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB112649094075137685,00.html?mod=home%5Fpage%5Fone%5Fus">WSJ article</a> describes a mathematical innovation that helped create the now huge market for credit derivatives. Credit derivatives let banks, hedge funds and other investors trade the risk associated with credit defaults (i.e. bankruptcy of bond issuers). Just as in previous derivatives markets, things didn&#8217;t take off until a simple model for pricing became widely accepted. The model itself is almost certainly too simple, but is (hopefully) improved in proprietary ways by sophisticated traders and researchers. On the plus side, credit derivatives make bond markets more liquid and efficient, allowing risk to be transferred to those most willing to bear it. On the downside, we have yet another ill-understood casino running, with trillions of dollars in play. A few years ago I looked at the Vasicek model for default probabilities (which forms the basis of the KMV methodology), and boy did it look rough. This all looks a lot like the CMO market, where traders blow up with regularity.</p>
<blockquote><p>
The banker, David Li, came up with a computerized financial model to weigh the likelihood that a given set of corporations would default on their bond debt in quick succession. Think of it as a produce scale that not only weighs a bag of apples but estimates the chance that they&#8217;ll all be rotten in a week.</p>
<p>The model fueled explosive growth in a market for what are known as credit derivatives: investment vehicles that are based on corporate bonds and give their owners protection against a default. This is a market that barely existed in the mid-1990s. Now it is both so gigantic &#8212; measured in the trillions of dollars &#8212; and so murky that it has drawn expressions of concern from several market watchers. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has asked 14 big banks to meet with it this week about practices in the surging market.</p>
<p><strong>The model Mr. Li devised helped estimate what return investors in certain credit derivatives should demand, how much they have at risk and what strategies they should employ to minimize that risk. Big investors started using the model to make trades that entailed giant bets with little or none of their money tied up. Now, hundreds of billions of dollars ride on variations of the model every day.</strong></p>
<p>&#8220;David Li deserves recognition,&#8221; says Darrell Duffie, a Stanford University professor who consults for banks. He &#8220;brought that innovation into the markets [and] it has facilitated dramatic growth of the credit-derivatives markets.&#8221;</p>
<p>The problem: The scale&#8217;s calibration isn&#8217;t foolproof. &#8220;The most dangerous part,&#8221; Mr. Li himself says of the model, &#8220;is when people believe everything coming out of it.&#8221; Investors who put too much trust in it or don&#8217;t understand all its subtleties may think they&#8217;ve eliminated their risks when they haven&#8217;t.</p>
<p>The story of Mr. Li and the model illustrates both the promise and peril of today&#8217;s increasingly sophisticated investment world. That world extends far beyond its visible tip of stocks and bonds and their reactions to earnings or economic news. In the largely invisible realm of derivatives &#8212; investment contracts structured so their value depends on the behavior of some other thing or event &#8212; credit derivatives play a significant and growing role. Endless trading in them makes markets more efficient and eases the flow of money into companies that can use it to grow, create jobs and perhaps spread prosperity.</p>
<p>But investors who use credit derivatives without fully appreciating the risks can cause much trouble for themselves and potentially also for others, by triggering a cascade of losses. The GM episode proved relatively minor, but some experts say it could have been worse. &#8220;I think this is a baby financial mania,&#8221; says David Hinman, a portfolio manager at Los Angeles investment firm Ares Management LLC, referring to credit derivatives. &#8220;Like a lot of financial manias, it tends to end with some casualties.&#8221;</p>
<p>Mr. Li, 42 years old, began his journey to this frontier of capitalist innovation three decades ago in rural China. His father, a police official, had moved the family to the countryside to escape the purges of Mao&#8217;s Cultural Revolution. Most children at the young Mr. Li&#8217;s school didn&#8217;t go past the 10th grade, but he made it into China&#8217;s university system and then on to Canada, where he collected two master&#8217;s degrees and a doctorate in statistics.</p>
<p>In 1997 he landed on the New York trading floor of Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, a pioneer in the then-small market for credit derivatives.<strong>Investment banks were toying with the concept of pooling corporate bonds and selling off pieces of the pool, just as they had done with mortgages. Banks called these bond pools collateralized debt obligations.</strong></p>
<p>They made bond investing less risky through diversification. Invest in one company&#8217;s bonds and you could lose all. But invest in the bonds of 100 to 300 companies and one loss won&#8217;t hurt so much.</p>
<p>The pools, however, didn&#8217;t just offer diversification. They also enabled sophisticated investors to boost their potential returns by taking on a large portion of the pool&#8217;s risk. Banks cut the pools into several slices, called tranches, including one that bore the bulk of the risk and several more that were progressively less risky.</p>
<p>Say a pool holds 100 bonds. An investor can buy the riskiest tranche. It offers by far the highest return, but also bears the first 3% of any losses the pool suffers from any defaults among its 100 bonds. The investor who buys this is betting there won&#8217;t be any such losses, in return for a shot at double-digit returns.</p>
<p>Alternatively, an investor could buy a conservative slice, which wouldn&#8217;t pay as high a return but also wouldn&#8217;t face any losses unless many more of the pool&#8217;s bonds default.</p>
<p>Investment banks, in order to figure out the rates of return at which to offer each slice of the pool, first had to estimate the likelihood that all the companies in it would go bust at once. Their fates might be tightly intertwined. For instance, if the companies were all in closely related industries, such as auto-parts suppliers, they might fall like dominoes after a catastrophic event. In that case, the riskiest slice of the pool wouldn&#8217;t offer a return much different from the conservative slices, since anything that would sink two or three companies would probably sink many of them. Such a pool would have a &#8220;high default correlation.&#8221;</p>
<p>But if a pool had a low default correlation &#8212; a low chance of all its companies stumbling at once &#8212; then the price gap between the riskiest slice and the less-risky slices would be wide.</p>
<p>This is where Mr. Li made his crucial contribution. In 1997, nobody knew how to calculate default correlations with any precision. Mr. Li&#8217;s solution drew inspiration from a concept in actuarial science known as the &#8220;broken heart&#8221;: People tend to die faster after the death of a beloved spouse. Some of his colleagues from academia were working on a way to predict this death correlation, something quite useful to companies that sell life insurance and joint annuities.</p>
<p>&#8220;Suddenly I thought that the problem I was trying to solve was exactly like the problem these guys were trying to solve,&#8221; says Mr. Li. &#8220;Default is like the death of a company, so we should model this the same way we model human life.&#8221;</p>
<p>His colleagues&#8217; work gave him the idea of using copulas: mathematical functions the colleagues had begun applying to actuarial science. Copulas help predict the likelihood of various events occurring when those events depend to some extent on one another. Among the best copulas for bond pools turned out to be one named after Carl Friedrich Gauss, a 19th-century German statistician.</p>
<p>Mr. Li, who had moved over to a J.P. Morgan Chase &amp; Co. unit (he has since joined Barclays Capital PLC), published his idea in March 2000 in the Journal of Fixed Income. The model, known by traders as the Gaussian copula, was born.</p>
<p>&#8220;David Li&#8217;s paper was kind of a watershed in this area,&#8221; says Greg Gupton, senior director of research at Moody&#8217;s KMV, a subsidiary of the credit-ratings firm. &#8220;It garnered a lot of attention. People saw copulas as the new thing that might illuminate a lot of the questions people had at the time.&#8221;</p>
<p>To figure out the likelihood of defaults in a bond pool, the model uses information about the way investors are treating each bond &#8212; how risky they&#8217;re perceiving its issuer to be. The market&#8217;s assessment of the default likelihood for each company, for each of the next 10 years, is encapsulated in what&#8217;s called a credit curve. Banks and traders take the credit curves of all 100 companies in a pool and plug them into the model.</p>
<p>The model runs the data through the copula function and spits out a default correlation for the pool &#8212; the likelihood of all of its companies defaulting on their debt at once. The correlation would be high if all the credit curves looked the same, lower if they didn&#8217;t. By knowing the pool&#8217;s default correlation, banks and traders can agree with one another on how much more the riskiest slice of the bond pool ought to yield than the most conservative slice.</p>
<p>&#8220;That&#8217;s the beauty of it,&#8221; says Lisa Watkinson, who manages structured credit products at Morgan Stanley in New York. &#8220;It&#8217;s the simplicity.&#8221;</p>
<p><strong>It&#8217;s also the risk, because the model, by making it easier to create and trade collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, has helped bring forth a slew of new products whose behavior it can predict only somewhat, not with precision. (The model is readily available to investors from investment banks.)</p>
<p>The biggest of these new products is something known as a synthetic CDO. It supercharges both the returns and the risks of a regular CDO. It does so by replacing the pool&#8217;s bonds with credit derivatives &#8212; specifically, with a type called credit-default swaps.</strong></p>
<p>The swaps are like insurance policies. They insure against a bond default. Owners of bonds can buy credit-default swaps on their bonds to protect themselves. If the bond defaults, whoever sold the credit-default swap is in the same position as an insurer &#8212; he has to pay up.</p>
<p>The price of this protection naturally varies, costing more as the perceived likelihood of default grows.</p>
<p>Some people buy credit-default swaps even though they don&#8217;t own any bonds. They buy just because they think the swaps may rise in value. Their value will rise if the issuer of the underlying bonds starts to look shakier.</p>
<p>Say somebody wants default protection on $10 million of GM bonds. That investor might pay $500,000 a year to someone else for a promise to repay the bonds&#8217; face value if GM defaults. If GM later starts to look more likely to default than before, that first investor might be able to resell that one-year protection for $600,000, pocketing a $100,000 profit.</p>
<p>Just as investment banks pool bonds into CDOs and sell off riskier and less-risky slices, banks pool batches of credit-default swaps into synthetic CDOs and sell slices of those. Because the synthetic CDOs don&#8217;t contain any actual bonds, banks can create them without going to the trouble of purchasing bonds. And the more synthetic CDOs they create, the more money the banks can earn by selling and trading them.</p>
<p>Synthetic CDOs have made the world of corporate credit very sexy &#8212; a place of high risk but of high potential return with little money tied up.</p>
<p>Someone who invests in a synthetic CDO&#8217;s riskiest slice &#8212; agreeing to protect the pool against its first $10 million in default losses &#8212; might receive an immediate payment of $5 million up front, plus $500,000 a year, for taking on this risk. He would get this $5 million without investing a dime, just for his pledge to pay in case of a default, much like what an insurance company does. Some investors, to prove they can pay if there is a default, might have to put up some collateral, but even then it would be only 15% or so of the amount they&#8217;re on the hook for, or $1.5 million in this example.</p>
<p><strong>This setup makes such an investment very tempting for many hedge-fund managers. &#8220;If you&#8217;re a new hedge fund starting out, selling protection on the [riskiest] tranche and getting a huge payment up front is certainly something that&#8217;s going to attract your attention,&#8221; says Mr. Hinman of Ares Management. It&#8217;s especially tempting given that a hedge fund&#8217;s manager typically gets to keep 20% of the fund&#8217;s winnings each year.</strong></p>
<p>Synthetic CDOs are booming, and largely displacing the old-fashioned kind. Whereas four years ago, synthetic CDOs insured less than the equivalent of $400 billion face amount of U.S. corporate bonds, they will cover $2 trillion by the end of this year, J.P. Morgan Chase estimates. The whole U.S. corporate-bond market is $4.9 trillion.</p>
<p>Some banks are deeply involved. J.P. Morgan Chase, as of March 31, had bought or sold protection on the equivalent of $1.3 trillion of bonds, including both synthetic CDOs and individual credit-default swaps. Bank of America Corp. had bought or sold about $850 billion worth and Citigroup Inc. more than $700 billion, according to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. Deutsche Bank AG, whose activity the comptroller doesn&#8217;t track, is another big player.</p>
<p>Much of that money is riding on Mr. Li&#8217;s idea, which he freely concedes has important flaws. For one, it merely relies on a snapshot of current credit curves, rather than taking into account the way they move. The result: Actual prices in the market often differ from what the model indicates they should be.</p>
<p>Investment banks try to compensate for the shortcomings of the model by cobbling copula models together with other, proprietary methods. At J.P. Morgan, &#8220;We&#8217;re not stupid enough to believe [the model] is omniscient,&#8221; said Andrew Threadgold, head of market risk management. &#8220;All risk metrics are flawed in some way, so the trick is to use a lot of different metrics.&#8221; Bank of America and Citigroup representatives said they use various models to assess risk and are constantly working to improve them. Deutsche Bank had no comment.</p>
<p>As with any model, forecasts investors make by using the model are only as good as the inputs. Someone asking the model to indicate how CDO prices will act in the future, for example, must first offer a guess about what will happen to the underlying credit curves &#8212; that is, to the market&#8217;s perception of the riskiness of individual bonds over several years. <strong>Trouble awaits those who blindly trust the model&#8217;s output instead of recognizing that they are making a bet based partly on what they told the model they think will happen. Mr. Li worries that &#8220;very few people understand the essence of the model.&#8221;</strong></p>
<p>Consider the trade that tripped up some hedge funds during May&#8217;s turmoil in GM securities. It involved selling insurance on the riskiest slice of a synthetic CDO and then looking to the model for a way to hedge the danger that the default risk would increase. Using the model, investors calculated that they could offset that danger by buying a double dose of insurance on a more conservative slice.</p>
<p>It looked like a great deal. For selling protection on the riskiest slice &#8212; agreeing to pay as much as $10 million to cover the pool&#8217;s first default losses &#8212; an investor would collect a $3.5 million upfront payment and an additional $500,000 yearly. Hedging the risk would cost the investor a mere $415,000 annually, the price to buy protection on a $20 million conservative piece.</p>
<p>But the model&#8217;s hedge assumed only one possible future: one in which the prices of all the credit-default swaps in the synthetic CDO moved in sync. They didn&#8217;t. On May 5, while the outlook for most bond issuers stayed about the same, two got slammed: GM and Ford Motor Co., both of which Standard &amp; Poor&#8217;s downgraded to below investment grade. That event caused a jump in the price of protection on GM and Ford bonds. Within two weeks, the premium payment on the riskiest slice of the CDO, the one most exposed to defaults, leapt to about $6.5 million upfront.</p>
<p>Result: An investor who had sold protection on the riskiest slice for $3.5 million had a paper loss of nearly $3 million. That&#8217;s because if the investor wanted to get out of the investment, he would have to buy a like amount of insurance from somebody else for $6.5 million, or $3 million more than he was getting.</p>
<p>The simultaneous investment in the conservative slice proved an inadequate hedge. Because only GM and Ford saw their default risk soar, not the rest of the bond world, the pricing of the more conservative slices of the pool didn&#8217;t rise nearly as much as the riskiest slice. So there wasn&#8217;t much of an offsetting profit to be made there by reselling that insurance.</p>
<p>This wasn&#8217;t really the fault of the model, which was designed mainly to help price the tranches, not to make predictions. True, the model had assumed the various credit curves would move in sync. But it also allowed for investors to adjust this assumption &#8212; an option that some, wittingly or not, ignored.</p>
<p><strong>Because numerous hedge funds had made the same credit-derivatives bet, the turmoil they faced spilled over into stock and bond markets. Many investors worried that some hedge funds might have to dump assets to cover their losses, so they sold, too. (Some hedge funds also suffered from a separate bad bet, which relied on GM&#8217;s bond and stock prices moving in tandem; it went wrong when GM shares rallied suddenly as investor Kirk Kerkorian said he would bid for GM shares.)</strong></p>
<p>GLG Credit Fund told its investors it lost about 14.5% in the month of May, much of that on synthetic CDO bets. Writing to investors, fund manager Jean-Michel Hannoun called the market reaction to the GM and Ford credit downgrades too improbable an event for the hedge fund&#8217;s risk model to capture. A GLG spokesman declines to comment.</p>
<p>The credit-derivatives market has since bounced back. Some say this shows that the proliferation of hedge funds and of complex derivatives has made markets more resilient, by spreading risk.</p>
<p>Others are less sanguine. &#8220;The events of spring 2005 might not be a true reflection of how these markets would function under stress,&#8221; says the annual report of the Bank for International Settlements, an organization that coordinates central banks&#8217; efforts to ensure financial stability. To Stanford&#8217;s Mr. Duffie, &#8220;The question is, has the market adopted the model wholesale in a way that has overreached its appropriate use? I think it has.&#8221;</p>
<p>Mr. Li says that &#8220;it&#8217;s not the perfect model.&#8221; But, he adds: &#8220;There&#8217;s not a better one yet.&#8221;</p></blockquote>
</div>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://www.appapillai.com/blog/2009/03/29/david-li-and-the-gaussian-copula/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Is the education model obsolete ?</title>
		<link>http://www.appapillai.com/blog/2009/03/09/is-mit-obsolete/</link>
		<comments>http://www.appapillai.com/blog/2009/03/09/is-mit-obsolete/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Mar 2009 03:03:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>mano</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Physics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Technology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[education]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MIT]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.appapillai.com/blog/?p=761</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[UNIVERSE IN 2009 Is MIT Obsolete? On the future of invention. by NEIL GERSHENFELD • Posted February 3, 2009 11:27 AM   Illustration by Raymond Biesinger. Today&#8217;s advanced research and education institutions are essential to tackling the grand challenges facing our planet, but they&#8217;ve been based on an implicit assumption of technological scarcity — advances in those technologies now [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong><a href="http://www.seedmagazine.com/news/universe-in-2009/">UNIVERSE IN 2009</a></strong></p>
<h2><a id="a002177" class="permalink" href="http://www.seedmagazine.com/news/2009/02/is_mit_obsolete.php">Is MIT Obsolete?</a></h2>
<p class="deck">On the future of invention.</p>
<p class="byline"><span class="author">by <a href="http://www.seedmagazine.com/news/author-neil-gershenfeld/">NEIL GERSHENFELD</a></span> • Posted February 3, 2009 11:27 AM</p>
<div class="articleBody">
<p> </p>
<p class="insetImage narrow"><img src="http://www.seedmagazine.com/news/uploads/MIT_finalART.jpg" alt="" /><span>Illustration by Raymond Biesinger.</span></p>
<p>Today&#8217;s advanced research and education institutions are essential to tackling the grand challenges facing our planet, but they&#8217;ve been based on an implicit assumption of technological scarcity — advances in those technologies now allow these activities to expand far beyond the boundaries of a campus.</p>
<p>Research requires funding, facilities, and people; I came to MIT to get access to all of these. State-of-the-art research infrastructure, large library collections, and world-class faculty are all expensive resources that limit admission slots, classroom space, and research positions. But what would happen if these things were no longer scarce?</p>
<p>That&#8217;s increasingly the case. The Internet has already enabled distance learning, providing video links to classrooms and remote access to online content (such as MIT&#8217;s OpenCourseWare). By digitizing not just the communication of ideas but also the fabrication of things, the campus can now effectively come to the student.</p>
<p>To understand how this is possible, return first to the earlier digital revolutions. Analog telephone calls degraded with distance; in the 1940s Claude Shannon showed that by transmitting them digitally they could be received without errors. This insight eventually gave rise to the internet. Similarly, analog computations degraded the longer they ran; in the 1950s John von Neumann and colleagues gave us digital computers that could correct their errors. These early giant mainframes begat &#8220;minicomputers,&#8221; which led in turn to the microprocessors used in personal computers (and increasingly everything else). </p>
<p>Something similar is happening to fabrication. In making today&#8217;s most advanced airplanes or integrated circuits, the intelligence is in the tools rather than the materials, which are cut, carved, mixed, and melted as they have been for millennia. But prototype processes in the laboratory can construct with codes, turning information into objects and vice versa, just as the proteins in your body can execute programs and correct errors.</p>
<blockquote class="pull"><p>Fab labs are like libraries for a new kind of literacy, the reading and writing of objects rather than books.</p></blockquote>
<p>This research will eventually lead to &#8220;personal fabricators&#8221; that will be able to make almost anything (including themselves). But it&#8217;s already possible to approximate their capabilities in field &#8220;fab labs&#8221; that are similar in cost and complexity to the minicomputers that were so important in the history of computing. Fab labs contain tens of thousands of dollars of computer-controlled tools that, although they don&#8217;t yet use fundamentally digital fabrication processes, can be used together to convert an electronic description into a functional object. Projects underway in fab labs include producing low-cost, low-power computers, wireless data networks, instruments for agriculture and the environment, and on-demand housing.</p>
<p>Pulled by a universal desire to measure and modify the world as well as get information about it on a computer screen, fab labs have spread around the globe, from inner-city Boston to rural India, from South Africa to northern Norway. The number of them has been doubling every 1.5 years or so; there are now about 30 (the most recent one opened in Afghanistan), with that many more currently being planned.</p>
<p>The only problem with providing ordinary people with modern means for invention is that this doesn&#8217;t fit within the conventional categories of education, industry, or aid. To fill this void, the fab lab network is now inventing new organizations: a non-profit Fab Foundation to support invention as aid, a for-profit Fab Fund to provide global capital for local inventors and global markets for local inventions, and an educational Fab Academy for distributed advanced technical education.</p>
<p>The Fab Academy is a network rather than a place, with teachers and students in fab labs around the world linked by broadband video, shared online information, and common technical capabilities. Its purpose is to keep up with the remarkable kids who are getting hands-on technical training in fab labs that is outstripping what they can learn in their (frequently dysfunctional) local school systems. Through this network I see colleagues above the Arctic Circle more often than ones who are in the same building at MIT, because on campus we&#8217;re all so busy juggling all of the activities that are happening in that single location.</p>
<p>The heart of MIT is its intellectual rather than physical infrastructure: a research culture that creates room for new ideas by emphasizing their evaluation through rapid reduction to practice, and by mixing short-term applications (both serious and silly) with long-term research. It&#8217;s much harder, however, to make room for new people by squeezing them into the same limited campus space. I recently helped plan substantial buildings to accommodate research growth at MIT and in the fab lab network; the former, at $100 million, was about 100 times the cost of the latter. While there are advanced capabilities that remain available only on campus, that boundary is rapidly receding.</p>
<div class="inArticleAd">
<p><span style="font-weight: normal;">This moment is akin to the turn of the last century, when philanthropists funded the spread of libraries to provide community access to the kinds of collections that had previously been available only to institutions and wealthy individuals. Fab labs are like libraries for a new kind of literacy, the reading and writing of objects rather than books. Instead of building a few big labs, it&#8217;s now possible to build a network of many more-accessible smaller labs that can be used for technical empowerment, training, incubation, and invention.</span></div>
<p>A few hundred top universities with a few thousand students each can hope to host only millions out of the billions of people on the planet, but insight and invention do not stop there. The MITs of the world are far from obsolete, but instead of draining brains away from where they are most needed, these institutions can now share not just their knowledge but also their tools, by providing the means to create them. Rather than advanced technological development and education being elite activities bounded by scarce space in classrooms and labs, they can become much more widely accessible and locally integrated, limited only by the most renewable of raw materials: ideas.  — <em>Neil Gershenfeld is the director of MIT&#8217;s Center for Bits and Atoms.</em></div>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://www.appapillai.com/blog/2009/03/09/is-mit-obsolete/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
	</channel>
</rss>

